Gulf of Tonkin: Tropical Depression Saola is tracking southwestward across Gulf of Tonkin evening Sept. 3 /update 13

Event

Tropical Depression Saola is tracking southwestwards across the Gulf of Tonkin the evening of Sept. 3 following landfall over Guangdong Province early Sept. 2. As of 17:00 CST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 352 km (219 miles) east of Hanoi, Vietnam.

Forecast models indicate the storm will weaken further as it tracks southwestwards across the Gulf of Tonkin and makes a close approach to Hainan Province, China the evening of Sept. 4 before turning to track southwards and dissipating early Sept. 6 just west of the province. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

The China Meteorological Administration is maintaining a red (highest level on a four-tier scale) typhoon warning; heavy rainfall is forecast across central and southern Guangxi Province through at least early Sept. 4. Authorities may issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards.

Authorities evacuated more than 780,000 people across Guangdong Province and around 100,000 people in eastern Fujian Province. Authorities confirmed one fatality and two injuries in Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province due to a fallen tree. As of Sept. 3, most trains as well as Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport (SZX) and Zhuhai Jinwan Airport (ZUH) have resumed normal operations.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
China Meteorological Administration