Maldives: Presidential election runoff to occur nationwide Sept. 30 /update 1

Event

The Republic of Maldives will conduct a presidential election runoff on Sept. 30 after neither of the top two candidates secured at least 50 percent of the vote in the first phase on Sept. 9. The runoff election will be a contest between incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamad Solih from the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) and opposition candidate Mohamed Muiz from the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM). Results are usually announced on the day of, or after polling. Security forces will likely remain on high alert nationwide amid concerns over possible political and militant violence ahead of and during the vote. The tightest security is almost certain near voting and campaign sites, which will likely prompt localized traffic disruptions. The government typically declares polling day as a holiday, leading to government office and business closures.

Campaign rallies and parades are likely in Male and other urban centers as the election date draws near, which could prompt significant transport and commercial disruptions. Popular rally venues in Male include the Artificial Beach and Carnival areas. Minor clashes between rival political factions, as well as between party supporters and police, are possible during political rallies and polling. There is a higher potential for violence in Male, Addu, and other towns.

Protests are possible ahead of and after the elections. Political parties could hold demonstrations over perceived electoral irregularities, with any losing opposition parties likely to focus on potential interference by the incumbent President Solih. Popular gathering venues include public grounds and squares and major intersections in central areas of cities; campaigns over contentious foreign policy matters may also trigger gatherings near the Indian High Commission in Male. Localized business and traffic disruptions will probably occur near rally sites. Police typically quell opposition protests with force. Unrest and associated disruptions will likely remain limited to Male and other urban centers and are unlikely to affect the country's tourist resorts or Male's Velana International Airport (MLE).

An extant terror risk prevails due to the presence of Islamist militants, particularly followers of the Islamic State (IS). Since 2016, Maldivian security forces have arrested over 100 IS supporters and claim to have foiled a few terror plots. High-profile attacks by solo actors linked to IS have resulted in injuries to former President Mohamed Nasheed and current Minister Ali Solih. Small-scale attacks using knives and explosives are possible near election offices, rallies, and political party offices, as well as at transport hubs, crowded markets, and places frequented by foreigners.

Context

Mohamed Muiz, the main opposition candidate from the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), won a surprise lead with more than 46% of the votes in the first round of polling, which took place amid heightened political tensions since August. The Supreme Court had barred former President and PPM leader Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom from contesting in the election. Yameen is currently serving a prison sentence for corruption and money laundering. Incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih came in second with 39% of the vote. The election is seen as a virtual referendum on whether India or China will have the biggest influence in the Maldives, given that Solih is perceived as pro-India while Muiz is widely regarded as pro-China. Around 282,000 people are eligible to vote in the runoff election, and the election commission is scheduled to reopen registration for the second election from September 16-17. Despite the peaceful first round of elections, incidents of violence remain possible during the runoff election amid heightened tensions between rival political parties.

Advice

Prepare for increased security - potentially including roadblocks and identification checks - until the end of the elections, especially on polling day. Avoid political party offices, political rallies, polling stations, and government buildings, where political unrest is most likely to occur. If a large mob begins forming, immediately leave the area or seek shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Use caution near transport hubs, crowded markets, places frequented by expatriates and travelers, and other potential militant targets. Allow additional time for travel near election events, especially in Male and other urban centers.