Nigeria: Biafra separatist activities likely to persist in the southeastern states and Abuja through at least late October /update 13

Event

Biafra separatist activities, including protests, work stoppages, and low-level armed attacks, will likely persist in the southeast through at least late October.

Protests supporting Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) leader Nnamdi Kanu, currently detained in Abuja, are frequent in southeastern states, particularly during Kanu's court appearances. IPOB activists may carry out protests and related actions such as strikes (also called stay-at-home or lockdown actions), notably in the southeastern states of Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Imo, and particularly on Mondays (a common strike day) or during Kanu's hearings. In recent months, there have been reports of emerging rival factions within IPOB and conflicting strike orders. Attacks and intimidation against those seen as not adhering to any IPOB strike calls are possible.

In addition, security officials often attribute acts of violence targeting civilians or security forces to IPOB militants or its armed wing, known as the Eastern Security Network (ESN). Suspected IPOB/ESN militants killed at least five police officers during an ambush in Ehime Mbano, Imo State, on Sept. 18.

Security forces will likely deploy to monitor protests or related actions. Protests or stay-at-home actions will probably affect business and transport operations. If demonstrations do occur, clashes with security forces are likely. Officials will almost certainly increase security and prohibit vehicle and pedestrian movement near the Federal High Court of Abuja during the next hearing. During previous hearings, tensions arose in the court's vicinity as security forces allegedly barred Kanu's legal representatives from access to the courtroom. Security operations against separatists in the southeast could lead to localized transport disruptions. Security forces may establish roadblocks and checkpoints. Further armed attacks targeting security forces are possible.

Context

Kanu faces numerous charges that include terrorism. IPOB and other Biafran organizations have been calling for protests and strikes since August 2021 to press the government to release Kanu; the actions have resulted in violence and significant business disruptions in the southeast. Protests by supporters of IPOB and Kanu may persist in the southeast in the coming months, depending on the court verdict.

IPOB seeks the independence of the southeastern region following the previous attempt at independence by the Republic of Biafra, which sparked a three-year civil war that ended in 1970. Deep divisions remain between Biafra separatists and the central government; the Federal High Court of Abuja labeled the group a terrorist organization in 2017. The so-called Biafra region geographically includes various southeastern states, including Abia, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Cross River, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, and Rivers, inhabited by the Igbo people.

Advice

Avoid all protests due to the potential for clashes. Anticipate business closures and disruptions to transportation and other services in the southeast during strike periods. Keep away from any location where security forces appear to be deploying; exit the area at the first sign of any confrontation. Heed instructions from authorities.