14 Sep 2023 | 03:52 PM UTC
North Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Lee tracking northward to the west-southwest of Bermuda as of Sept. 14 /update 8
Hurricane Lee tracking northward in the North Atlantic Ocean as of Sept. 14. Landfall forecast over Nova Scotia, Canada, late Sept. 16.
Event
Hurricane Lee has weakened into a Category 1 hurricane and is tracking northward in the western North Atlantic Ocean Sept. 14. As of 11:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 396 km (245 miles) west-southwest of Bermuda.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken slightly but maintain Category 1 hurricane strength as it tracks north-northeastward toward the far northeastern US and far southeastern Canada through early Sept. 16, passing over 250 km (155 miles) west of Bermuda through Sept. 14. The system will likely transition into a post-tropical cyclone before making landfall in western Nova Scotia, Canada, late Sept. 16. The post-tropical system is then expected to turn to track northeastward and pass over southeastern New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island early Sept. 17 before moving over the Gulf of St Lawrence. The system will likely pass over northern Newfoundland early Sept. 18 before entering the Labrador Sea. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.
As of Sept. 14, officials have issued the following coastal watches and warnings:
Hurricane Watch: Stonington, Maine, to the U.S./Canada border; New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau, including Grand Manan Island; Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour.
Tropical Storm Warning: Bermuda; Massachusetts coast from Woods Hole to Hull; Matha's Vineyard; Nantucket.
Tropical Storm Watch: Watch Hill, Rhode Island, to Woods Hole, Massachusetts; Block Island; north of Hull, Massachusetts, to Stonington, Maine; New Brunswick from north of Point Lepreau to Fort Lawrence; Nova Scotia's west coast from north of Digby to Fort Lawrence; Nova Scotia's southeast coast from north of Medway Harbour to Porter’s Lake.
Storm Surge Watch: Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket.
Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.
Tropical-storm-force winds are currently occurring in Bermuda and are expected to continue through Sept. 15. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas Sept. 16. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket during the afternoon Sept. 15 and are possible in the tropical storm watch areas late Sept. 15-16. The system may produce rainfall totals of 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inches) in Bermuda through early Sept. 15 and totals of 2.5-10 cm (1-4 inches) across parts of northeastern New England in the US and New Brunswick and Nova Scotia in Atlantic Canada late Sept. 14-late Sept, 15.
Storm surge of 0.3-1.2 meters (1-4 feet) is possible along parts of the New England coast if peak surges occur during high tide. Storm surge could also produce coastal flooding along parts of the Atlantic Canada coast. Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the US and are starting to reach Atlantic Canada; these swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
