12 Sep 2023 | 03:31 PM UTC
North Atlantic Ocean: Hurricane Lee tracking west-northwestward in the North Atlantic Ocean as of Sept. 12 /update 6
Hurricane Lee tracking west-northwestward in the western North Atlantic Ocean as of Sept. 12. Tropical storm watch issued for Bermuda.
Event
Hurricane Lee is maintaining Category 3 hurricane strength and is tracking west-northwestward in the western North Atlantic Ocean on Sept. 12. As of 11:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 895 km (555 miles) south of Bermuda.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will maintain Category 3 hurricane strength as it tracks northwestward and then north-northwestward through early Sept. 13. The system is expected to weaken into a Category 2 hurricane by late Sept. 13 before turning to track northward and weakening into a Category 1 hurricane as it passes around 250 km (155 miles) west of Bermuda late Sept. 14-early Sept. 15. The storm is forecast to continue to weaken as it tracks northward toward the far northeastern US and far southeastern Canada Sept. 15-16 and will likely transition into a post-tropical cyclone before making landfall over far western Nova Scotia and southern New Brunswick early Sept. 17. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.
As of Sept. 12, a tropical storm watch has been issued for Bermuda. Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.
Tropical-storm-force winds are possible in Bermuda from early Sept. 14 and the system may produce rainfall totals of 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inches) in Bermuda Sept. 14-15. Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda; these swells are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Dangerous surf and rip currents have begun to reach portions of the Southeast US coast and are likely to spread northwards across most of the US East Coast over the coming days.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
