Syria: Further protests and strike action are likely in As-Suwayda through the end of September /update 2

Event

Additional protests and strike action are likely in As-Suwayda Governorate and the surrounding area through the end of September following large-scale anti-government unrest that began Aug. 20. Protests have reportedly occurred in over 40 locations, including in As-Suwayda city as well as Latakia and Tartus, considered regime strongholds, since the Syrian government removed subsidies for staple items such as fuel. Protesters are also demanding that President Bashar al-Assad step down and allow a new generation of Syrians to govern.

Authorities will likely maintain heightened security across the governorate and deploy additional security forces to monitor any protests that materialize over the coming days. Likely gathering locations include city centers, major squares and thoroughfares, and government buildings. Localized ground transport and business disruptions are probable in areas affected by demonstrations. Violence has occurred at some gatherings, and further clashes between protesters and security personnel cannot be ruled out.

Context

This renewed civil unrest in Syria is a consequence of profound social and economic ills impacting the country. Twelve years of conflict in the country has killed over 350,000 people and brought about a major humanitarian disaster. Some 90 percent of Syrians live below the poverty line, and half of Syria's pre-war population of 22 million have been displaced. Additionally, according to the United Nations, 70 percent of the population needs urgent humanitarian assistance.

If the current status quo persists, it is likely that Syria's structural problems will not be addressed, and protests will continue. The al-Assads and the Alawites no longer monopolize the political field. Other groups will continue to fight for their political rights and a share of the country's resources. The deteriorating economic conditions will not only continue to result in the displacement of people and spark protests but will also likely make it easier for militant groups, including IS, to recruit fighters into their ranks. As things stand, the security situation in Syria will remain dynamic and is unlikely to improve over the short- to medium-term

Advice

Avoid all demonstrations due to the potential for clashes. Monitor local media for updates on the status of roads, as protest locations may not be announced in advance. Depart the area at the first sign of any confrontation. Plan accordingly for potential disruptions to ground travel. Heed the instructions of security officials.