Central America: Tropical Storm Pilar tracking east-northeastward over the eastern North Pacific Ocean as of early Oct. 31 /update 1

Tropical Storm Pilar is tracking east-northeastward over the eastern North Pacific Ocean toward Central America as of early Oct. 31. As of 04:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 285 km (180 miles) south-southwest of San Salvador, El Salvador.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen but remain a tropical storm as its movement stalls late Oct. 31-early Nov. 1, with the center of circulation remaining around 200 km (124 miles) off the coast of El Salvador. Pilar is expected to turn to track west-southwestward away from Central America Nov.1. The system is forecast to weaken slightly as it tracks west-southwestward and then westward out into the North Pacific Ocean through early Nov. 5. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Oct. 31, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Tropical storm watch: Entire coast of El Salvador; Pacific coast of Honduras, including the Gulf of Fonseca; from the Honduras-Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua.

Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas from early Oct. 31. Forecast models indicate the storm may generate rainfall totals of 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches), with localized maximums of up to 37.5 cm (15 inches), over parts of Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica through Nov. 1. The heavy rainfall will likely cause flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Consequent landslides are also possible in elevated terrain. Swells generated by Pilar, which are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, are expected to continue to affect parts of the Pacific coast of Central America over the coming days.

As of early Oct 31, authorities in El Salvador have reported two fatalities due to heavy rainfall associated with Pilar. Authorities have evacuated 42 families from at-risk areas of Acajutla in Sonsonate Department. El Salvador's National Civil Protection System has issued a red alert nationwide due to Tropical Storm Pilar and authorities also declared a State of National Emergency for 15 days from Oct. 29 to enable the government to respond to the possible effects of the storm. Schools and other educational facilities across El Salvador have been closed through at least Nov. 1. Authorities in Nicaragua have issued a yellow alert across the country due to Tropical Storm Pilar.

The inclement weather could trigger evacuations as well as localized disruptions to business, transport, and utilities. The system may also render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports cannot be ruled out. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding often increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.