Europe: Conflict-related sanctions and restrictions continue to cause disruptions throughout the region as of Oct. 5 /update 2

Event

Sanctions and restrictions imposed by various governments in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine continue to cause disruptions across Europe as of Oct. 5.

Russian authorities imposed a temporary ban on the export of gasoline and diesel to all countries except Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Kyrgyzstan as of Sept. 21. The ban was reportedly issued to allow the stabilization of internal market prices in Russia; however, the diesel market in Europe and worldwide was severely impacted by the ban. Authorities have not indicated a potential end date for the ban.

As of early October, Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia are negotiating possible further bans of Ukrainian agricultural products following the expiration of EU measures. In Slovakia the Smer party won the latest parliamentary elections on Sept. 30. The party, which has previously faced accusations of aligning with the Kremlin, will possibly enforce further bans on Ukrainian products in favor of national economic needs.

Since Sept. 19, Latvian authorities closed the Silene border crossing due to continuous illegal crossings from Belarus. One other border crossing point, Paterneki, will remain active until further notice from Riga authorities.

Through late September and early October, Russian authorities intermittently closed traffic on the Crimean Bridge without reporting any clear reasons. Transport delays and disruptions are possible in the upcoming weeks as further temporary closures are likely.

Travel Restrictions
Multiple governments, including Australia, Bulgaria, Canada, France, Poland, the UK, and the US, have issued travel advisories calling on their nationals to avoid travel to Russia and for those currently in that country to depart by commercial means immediately or when it is safe to do so. Additionally, multiple nations have tightened visa regimes for Russian nationals. Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, and the Czech Republic restrict most non-essential travel by Russian citizens. In response, Russia has tightened visa regimes for citizens of EU countries and banned certain categories of EU officials from entering Russia.

Heightened Security and General Disruptions
Several countries bordering Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia have implemented heightened security. Hungary, Moldova, Slovakia, and Latvia have enacted states of emergency. Ukraine has closed its border checkpoints with Belarus, Russia, and the breakaway Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; however, Ukrainian citizens are permitted to return. Belarus has also implemented enhanced security measures on its border with Ukraine.

Poland has sent thousands of additional military personnel to its border with Belarus in response to the presence of Wagner Group fighters in Belarus and after Belarusian military helicopters allegedly violated Polish airspace. Warsaw intends to increase the number of deployed military personnel to around 10,000. The Bobrowniki border crossing point between Poland and Belarus remains closed.

Russia is maintaining heightened security in regions bordering Ukraine and has raised the terrorism threat level to the maximum "Security Level 3" at all airports in Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Enhanced security measures, including additional patrols and checkpoints, and intensive baggage, vehicle, and passenger checks are likely while Security Level 3 is in force, prompting possible passenger processing delays.

Cyber Threats
Russian-backed hackers have maintained a constant campaign of cyberattacks against Ukrainian, NATO, the EU, and other Western entities, principally targeting government and defense-related organizations. Cyberattacks are often carried out in response to actions of target governments or entities perceived to be against Russia's interests. Cybersecurity analysts have identified Russian military intelligence as becoming more aggressive and more direct in its attacks.

Transport Disruptions
As of Oct. 2, Bulgaria banned the entry of vehicles carrying a Russian plate, following similar decisions by Estonia, Latvia, Finland, and Lithuania. The ban on vehicles with Russian plates is due to ongoing sanctions targeting Russian vehicles. Authorities in the EU confirmed the ban of specific goods coming from Russia, de facto allowing border authorities to confiscate illegal items held by Russian citizens upon crossing the EU external border.

Reciprocal flight bans and airspace closures remain in effect between Russia and numerous Western-aligned countries, including EU member states, the UK, Canada, the US, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan. Turkish authorities have suspended flights of Russian-operated Boeing and Airbus aircraft due to international sanctions, significantly reducing air travel between the two countries.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative ended on July 17 following Russian accusations that Western sanctions were impacting its ability to export grain and fertilizer. The UN-backed accord brokered between Russia, Turkiye, and Ukraine provided for the safe passage of grain and other foodstuffs from the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi to an inspection point near Istanbul. A warning issued by Russia immediately following the end of the agreement stated that it would no longer be able to guarantee the security of vessels operating in the northwestern Black Sea. The Russian defense ministry has since stated that all vessels en route to Ukrainian ports would be “considered as potential carriers of military cargo” and that the flag states of such vessels would be considered as directly involved in the ongoing conflict. Without the Initiative in place, the maritime shipment of grains from Ukrainian ports will almost certainly cease as insurance providers are likely to refuse cover for vessels operating in the northwestern Black Sea. Further negotiations between Turkiye and Russia over the issue are expected in the coming weeks.

Sanctions and Diplomatic Relations
Multiple governments are maintaining sanctions against Russia, including EU and G7 nations, as well as the UK, Australia, Norway, and New Zealand. The EU imposed an eleventh package of sanctions on June 21, expanding bans on various goods and dual-use products. EU sanctions have been extended through Jan. 31, 2024. Additionally, restrictions may be imposed on third countries and non-Russian companies perceived to be not doing enough to stop Moscow from evading the bloc's sanctions. The US has placed restrictions on several companies accused of aiding Russian sanctions circumvention, including entities based in Kyrgyzstan, the UAE, and Serbia. The companies were sanctioned for dealing in Russia's aerospace, technology, electronics, and semiconductor sectors.

Multiple governments have expelled numerous Russian diplomats on various grounds, including espionage and other national security concerns, provoking reciprocal expulsions by Moscow. The moves may reduce available consular services in each country, though core services will likely be maintained while diplomatic missions remain open. Aside from governmental sanctions, hundreds of companies have voluntarily suspended or terminated their Russian operations.

Authorities in Russia will withdraw a permit allowing the Finnish Consulate General in Saint Petersburg to operate from Oct. 1, effectively forcing its closure, and expel nine Finnish diplomats in retaliation for Finland expelling nine Russian diplomats in June. Finland has denounced the move and, in response, will withdraw operating permission for the Russian Consulate General in Turku on the same day.

Advice

Confirm flight status with carriers; do not check out of accommodations until onward travel is confirmed. Avoid nonessential travel to affected border regions. Heed authorities' instructions; remain calm and cooperative if questioned by law enforcement officers or other officials. Carry proper identification, including a passport with a current Russian or Belarusian visa, if one is required. Prepare for disruptions to card payments in Russia. Ensure alternative payment methods are available. Refrain from discussing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine or other politically sensitive topics, including on social media services.