Israel, Lebanon: Clashes and exchanges of fire likely across shared border through at least mid-October /update 2

Event

Clashes and exchanges of fire are likely across the Israeli-Lebanese border through at least mid-October. Militant groups Hizballah and Hamas have claimed to have launched cross-border missile and rocket attacks from Lebanon targeting locations and military assets in northern Israel since Hamas opened a multiprong assault on Israel from the Gaza Strip Oct. 7. Israel has responded with retaliatory airstrikes, shelling, and tank fire targeting suspected militant positions in Lebanon. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militants have also reportedly clashed with Israeli forces in areas along the Israeli-Lebanese border since the Hamas assault began, resulting in the deaths of multiple militants and Israel Defense Forces (IDF) personnel.

Recent instances of militant infiltration from Lebanon into Israel and concerns over possible conflict escalation have prompted Israeli officials to urge residents of northern Israeli communities to take cover in bomb shelters or evacuate from their towns entirely. Authorities may issue similar orders on short notice in the event of further cross-border fire or militant infiltration threatening northern Israeli communities.

Israel has mobilized IDF soldiers, including reservists, to the country's northern border area and will almost certainly maintain a heightened security presence in the Northern District over the coming weeks. Israeli forces will likely carry out retaliatory attacks on militant positions in Lebanon in the event of further cross-border fire from or clashes with militant groups based in that country. Disruptions to transport and business are possible in areas of northern Israel that are impacted by armed conflict or heightened security measures, including seek-shelter or evacuation orders.

Advice

Consider avoiding nonessential travel near the Israeli-Lebanese border until the situation stabilizes. Monitor local media and abide by security forces' directives. If incoming mortar rounds or rockets are reported or warning sirens sound in the general vicinity, report to the nearest bomb shelter and await further instructions from authorities. If there is no shelter nearby, stay indoors and away from windows and exterior walls. If possible, move to a ground floor or basement.