16 Oct 2023 | 09:42 AM UTC
Israel, Lebanon, Syria: Violence across the shared border between Israel, Lebanon, and Syria likely through at least late October /update 4
Clashes and exchanges of fire are likely across Israel-Lebanon-Syria border through at least late October. Israel evacuating border areas.
Event
Fighting along Israel's northern border with Lebanon and Syria will likely persist through at least late October. Violence has been periodically reported since Hamas launched attacks against military and civilian targets in southern Israel on Oct. 7. The impacts in northern Israel have largely been felt near these shared borders. Israeli retaliatory fire has impacted sites across southern Lebanon; in Syria, cross-border fire and targeted Israeli airstrikes deep inside Syria have occurred. Additional Israeli military forces have been deployed to the northern border. Lebanon-based militants have also reportedly deployed additional forces to the shared border with Israel.
Syria-Israel
Cross-border fire involving Israeli military and Syrian military forces is likely to occur periodically in the Golan Heights region. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) is also likely to continue a campaign of targeting sites deeper within Syria. On Oct. 12, Israel targeted Damascus International Airport (DAM) and Aleppo International Airport (ALP), damaging both landing strips and putting the airports out of service. On Oct. 14, the IDF targeted ALP again, injuring five people. On Oct. 16, Syrian officials reported that ALP had resumed service. DAM remains out of service as of Oct. 16. Syrian officials have noted that Bassel al-Assad International Airport (LTK), which serves Latakia, is open for flights.
Lebanon-Israel
Cross-border fire involving Israeli military forces and Lebanon-based militants, including Iran-backed Hezbollah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), will likely persist. As of Oct. 16, at least 12 people have been killed and injured near the shared border in both countries since the outbreak of hostilities on Oct. 7.
On Oct. 16, Israeli officials announced the activation of a plan to evacuate residents who live within 2 km (1.2 miles) of the shared border with Lebanon in northern Israel. The impacted communities include Reger, Dishon, Kfar Yuval, Margaliot, Metula, Avivim, Dobb, Ma'ayan Baruch, Baram, Manara, Yiftah, Malkiah, Meshgav Am, Yaraon, Dafna, Arab al Aramsha, Shlomi, Natua, Ya'ara, Shtula, Matat, Zerait, Shumera, Batzat, Adamit, Rosh Hankara, Kfar Giladi and Hanita.
On Oct. 15, Israeli officials declared the shared border area with Lebanon a 'closed military zone.' Civilians cannot enter an area within 4 km (2.5 miles) of the shared border with Lebanon.
Disruptions
Further movement restrictions or evacuations may be announced in the Israel, Syria, or Lebanon border region in the coming days. The movement of military personnel and checkpoints will also likely disrupt travel along primary and secondary road routes. Fighting could impact utilities, including power and water supply.
Context
Tensions along Israel's northern borders with Lebanon and Syria have increased markedly since Oct. 7. The potential for escalation is high and could be triggered by a successful and impactful militant infiltration into northern Israel, any significant increase in cross-border rocket fire from Lebanon or Syria into Israel or Israeli military action targeting key sites in either Lebanon or Syria. Should escalation occur, Israeli military strikes could expand further into Lebanon against critical infrastructure and militant targets, including in the Beirut area. Israeli strikes could also escalate against Syrian military and infrastructure targets, including but not limited to military bases and airports.
Advice
Consider avoiding nonessential travel near the Israel-Lebanon-Syria border until the situation stabilizes. Monitor local media and abide by security forces' directives. If incoming mortar rounds or rockets are reported or warning sirens sound in the general vicinity, report to the nearest bomb shelter and await further instructions from authorities. If there is no shelter nearby, stay indoors and away from windows and exterior walls. If possible, move to a ground floor or basement. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Reconfirm the status of transport services before departure.
