Israel, PT: Cross-border fighting continues Oct. 20 after Hamas militants launch large-scale assault Oct. 7 /update 16

Event

Fighting will almost certainly continue over the Israel-Gaza border between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants over the coming days after Palestinian militants, led by Hamas, launched a surprise land, air, and sea attack on Israel early Oct. 7. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continue to prepare for a ground operation in Gaza with a significant resource build up along the Gaza-Israel border.

Latest Developments

Cross-border, ground-based fighting continued between Israeli forces and Gazan militants in southern Israel near the Israel-Gaza border on Oct. 20.

Hamas militants reportedly infiltrated numerous locations within Israel after surging across the border Oct. 7-9, shooting at civilians and soldiers while launching thousands of rockets toward the country. Since Oct. 7, projectile fire has targeted cities in southern and central Israel.

Moreover, the Lebanese militant group Hizballah continues to launch rockets and drones against targets in northern Israel as of Oct. 20. Al-Quds Brigades, the military wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad movement (PIJ), has also claimed responsibility for ground infiltrations from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.

Hamas militants have reportedly taken at least 200 Israelis, including Israeli soldiers, hostage, holding them in the Gaza Strip. Casualty numbers continue to increase. As of Oct. 20, Israeli authorities have indicated that at least 1,403 Israelis and 289 members of the IDF have been killed. More than 4,500 people have been wounded in Israel amid the hostilities.

Gaza and the West Bank

Israeli forces have launched major retaliatory airstrikes in the Gaza Strip, killing at least 4,137 people and wounding more than 13,160 in the territory as part of the IDF's Operation Iron Swords. Israeli authorities have also ordered a full siege on the Gaza Strip, cutting power, water, and gas amid the fighting; internet service disruptions have also been reported. Authorities have ordered citizens from northern Gaza, 1.1 million people, to evacuate to the southern part of the territory in preparation for a ground operation. On Oct. 14, the IDF announced it would refrain from attacking the coastal road and Salahal-Din Street within the Gaza Strip between 10:00-16:00 (local time) to enable residents of the northern areas of the enclave to relocate towards the south. As of Oct. 15, Israeli authorities stated they would continue to allow people to evacuate south amid preparations for their operations.

Additionally, Palestinians clashed with Israeli forces in the West Bank Oct. 7, and a general strike was organized across the territory Oct. 8. Further incidents of civil unrest and clashes with security forces are likely to occur throughout the West Bank. Reports indicate that Israeli security forces have arrested more than 750 Palestinians since Oct. 7, mostly in the West Bank. Violent incidents between Israeli settlers and Palestinians in the West Bank have been reported since Oct. 7.

Israel Ground Offensive

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are continuing to conduct "localized raids" into the Gaza Strip as of Oct. 20. The move reportedly aims to clear the area of militants and search for Israelis abducted by Hamas militants. The raids notably come as reports indicate the IDF is getting ready to launch a full ground offensive into Gaza.

Ahead of any major ground incursion into the territory, Israeli forces are likely to increase artillery strikes and airstrikes in the Gaza Strip and ramp up maritime operations in nearby coastal waters. The IDF would also probably deploy combined arms tactics during any major ground assault into Gaza. Israel has called up some 360,000 reservists for duty amid the war, many of whom have deployed to areas around the Gaza Strip ahead of the likely ground incursion. Numerous Israeli communities have been evacuated near the Gaza Strip, including Sderot. The Israeli military demarcated "closed military areas" surrounding the Gaza Strip and isolated an area of 5km (3 miles) from the northern Israeli-Lebanese border, closing its access to the public.

Political Response

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared Israel to be at war, and Israeli military officials also assert that the country is prepared to defend against military action by Hizballah militants in Lebanon. Authorities have declared a state of national civil emergency across Israel; the move enables law enforcement officers to exercise additional authority. Netanyahu and opposition leaders agreed to form an emergency government Oct. 11 and established a war cabinet.

On Oct. 18-19, President Joe Biden visited Tel Aviv to reiterate his support of Israel. As anti-American protests erupted in neighboring Jordan and Egypt, King Abdullah II canceled Biden's visit to Amman following the Al-Ahli al-Arabi Hospital bombing, pointing to security concerns. Further protests occurred Oct. 20, after Friday prayers, across the MENA region.

Travel Disruptions

The conflict has caused significant flight disruptions in Israel, with the Israel Airports Authority temporarily closing multiple airports in central and southern areas of the country Oct. 7. While Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport (TLV) reportedly remains open as of Oct. 20, several airlines have canceled flights to and from the airport. Reports indicate El Al (LY) is still operating flights to and from TLV under adjusted schedules.

Flight disruptions, including delays and cancellations, are likely at TLV and other airports in Israel until the situation stabilizes and rocket fire from the Gaza Strip subsides. Moreover, officials may suspend all flight operations at TLV on short notice in response to conflict developments. The Civil Aviation Authority has also banned sports and leisure flights from Israeli airspace until further notice.

The IDF closed roads near the border with the Gaza Strip, including Route 4 from the Zikim junction to Netiv Ha'asara, Route 34 from the Yad Mordechai junction to Nir Am, and Route 232 from Mefalsim to Sa'ad and Nir Yitzhak to Kerem Shalom. Authorities have also closed the Zikim beach on the Gaza border and suspended train services between Ashkelon and Sderot. Crossings between the West Bank and Israel are either closed or under surveillance. Egyptian and American authorities negotiated the opening of the Rafah crossing to humanitarian aid, but substantive damage to roads and continued Israeli airstrikes in the neighborhood are preventing access. For further information on border crossing status, click here.

Tactical Analysis

Heightened security measures and disruptions to transport and business will almost certainly continue across Israel over at least the short term. Tight security is likely at all Israeli ports of entry over the short-term, and the status of border crossings, airports, seaports, roads, and rail services may change with little to no notice depending on conflict developments.

Anti-Israel militants may stage opportunistic attacks from within the West Bank, southern Lebanon, and/or Israeli cities and towns. Demonstrations are also possible within Israel and likely within the Palestinian Territories. Clashes between demonstrators and security forces cannot be ruled out at any demonstrations that may materialize.

Context

Hamas, the Gaza-based militant group, launched a surprise land, sea, and air assault against Israel early Oct. 7. Hamas has called the operation "Al-Aqsa Flood." It is the largest and most coordinated attack against Israel in years. It coincided with the Jewish religious holiday Simchat Torah and, perhaps not coincidentally, 50 years and a day after the beginning of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Allies of Israel, including states with no official relations, such as Saudi Arabia, have condemned the attack, while supporters of Hamas, including Iran and Hizballah, have welcomed it.

Advice

Reconsider nonessential travel to Israel and the Palestinian Territories until the situation stabilizes. Reconfirm flights and the status of roads and border crossings. Arrive early at airports to allow additional time for processing. Monitor local media and abide by security forces' directives. If incoming mortar rounds or rockets are reported or warning sirens sound in the general vicinity, report to the nearest bomb shelter and await further instructions from authorities. If there is no shelter nearby, stay indoors and away from windows and exterior walls. If possible, move to a ground floor or basement. Maintain contact with diplomatic missions. Avoid all demonstrations and concentrations of security personnel.