Israel, PT: Cross-border fighting likely to continue in the coming days after Hamas militants launch large-scale assault Oct. 7 /update 6

Event

Fighting will almost certainly continue in Israel and over the Israel-Gaza border between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants over the coming days after Palestinian militants, led by Hamas, launched a surprise land, air, and sea attack on Israel early Oct. 7.

Latest Developments

Ground-based fighting continues to persist between Israel and Gaza militants in multiple communities in southern Israel near the Israel-Gaza border as of the afternoon of Oct. 9. Hamas militants have reportedly infiltrated as many as 50 locations within Israel since Oct. 7, shooting at civilians and soldiers, while launching thousands of rockets toward the country. Projectile fire has targeted, and will likely continue to target, multiple cities in southern and central Israel, including but not limited to Tel Aviv, Sderot, Bat Yam, Rishon LeZion, and Yavme. Hamas possesses thousands of rockets in its arsenal, including the Ayyash 250, which has a purported range of up to 250 km (150 miles). Additionally, the Lebanese militant group Hizballah has also launched several rockets and drones against targets in northern Israel.

Hamas militants have reportedly taken at least 100 Israelis, including Israeli soldiers, hostage, holding them in and near the Gaza Strip. Israeli authorities have indicated that at least 1,100 people have been killed, including 44 soldiers, and 2,000 wounded in Israel amid the assault.

Gaza and the West Bank

Israeli forces have launched major retaliatory airstrikes in the Gaza Strip, killing at least 413 people and wounding at least 2,300 in the territory as part of "Operation Iron Swords." Israeli authorities have also ordered "a full siege on the Gaza Strip", cutting power, water, and gas amid the fighting; internet service disruptions have also been reported. Additionally, Palestinians clashed with Israeli forces in the West Bank Oct. 7, and a general strike is underway across the territory as of Oct. 8. Additional incidents of civil unrest and clashes with security forces are likely in the West Bank.

Political Response

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared Israel to be "at war" and called for a large mobilization of military reservists in response to the Palestinian militant assault. Israeli military officials have also claimed that the country is prepared to defend against any possible military action by Hizballah militants in Lebanon. Authorities have declared a state of national civil emergency across Israel, allowing law enforcement officers to "utilize additional responsibilities."

Travel Disruptions

The conflict has caused significant flight disruptions in Israel, with the Israel Airports Authority temporarily closing multiple airports in central and southern areas of the country Oct. 7. While Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport (TLV) reportedly remains open as of the afternoon of Oct. 9, several airlines had canceled flights to and from the airport, including American Airlines (AA), Air France (AF), Delta Air Lines (DL), Lufthansa (LH), Emirates (EK), Ryanair (FR), and EgyptAir (MS) among others. Flight disruptions, including delays and cancellations, are likely at TLV and other airports in Israel until the situation stabilizes and rocket fire from the Gaza Strip subsides. Moreover, officials may suspend all flight operations at TLV on short notice in response to conflict developments. The Civil Aviation Authority also said Oct. 7 that no sports or leisure flights may take off into Israeli airspace until further notice.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have closed roads near the border with the Gaza Strip, including Route 4 from the Zikim junction to Netiv Ha'asara, Route 34 from the Yad Mordechai junction to Nir Am, and Route 232 from Mefalsim to Sa'ad and Nir Yitzhak to Kerem Shalom. Authorities have also closed the Zikim beach on the Gaza border, suspended train services between Ashkelon and Sderot, and reportedly closed border crossings with Jordan amid the conflict. Officials have announced that schools will remain closed in central and southern Israel on Oct. 9.

Tactical Analysis

Heightened security measures and disruptions to transport and business will almost certainly continue in central and southern areas of Israel over at least the short term. Heightened security is likely at all Israeli ports of entry over the coming days, and the status of border crossings, airports, seaports, roads, and rail services may change on short notice in response to conflict developments. Precautionary measures, such as evacuations, are possible in areas impacted by armed conflict.

Anti-Israel militants may stage opportunistic attacks amid the fighting from within the West Bank, southern Lebanon, and/or Israeli cities and towns. Demonstrations are also possible within Israel and the Palestinian Territories amid prevailing heightened tensions. Clashes between demonstrators and security forces cannot be ruled out at any demonstrations that materialize.

Context

Hamas, the Gaza-based militant group, launched a surprise land, sea, and air assault against Israel early Oct. 7. Hamas has called the operation 'Al-Aqsa Flood.' It is the largest and most coordinated attack against Israel in years. It coincided with the Jewish religious holiday Simchat Torah and, perhaps not coincidentally, 50 years and a day after the beginning of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Allies of Israel, including states with no official relations, such as Saudi Arabia, have condemned the attack, while supporters of Hamas, including Iran and Hizballah, have welcomed it.

Advice

Reconsider nonessential travel to Israel and the Palestinian Territories until the situation stabilizes, particularly to central and southern Israel. Monitor local media and abide by security forces' directives. If incoming mortar rounds or rockets are reported or warning sirens sound in the general vicinity, report to the nearest bomb shelter and await further instructions from authorities. If there is no shelter nearby, stay indoors and away from windows and exterior walls. If possible, move to a ground floor or basement. Maintain contact with diplomatic missions. Avoid all demonstrations and concentrations of security personnel.