Israel, PT: Cross-border fighting likely to continue in the coming days after Hamas militants launch large-scale assault Oct. 7 /update 8

Event

Fighting will almost certainly continue over the Israel-Gaza border between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants over the coming days after Palestinian militants, led by Hamas, launched a surprise land, air, and sea attack on Israel early Oct. 7.

Latest Developments

Limited ground-based fighting has continued between Israeli forces and Gazan militants in southern Israel near the Israel-Gaza border as of Oct. 11. Hamas militants have reportedly infiltrated as many as 50 locations within Israel since Oct. 7, shooting at civilians and soldiers, while launching thousands of rockets toward the country. Projectile fire has targeted, and will likely continue to target, multiple cities in southern and central Israel, including but not limited to Ashdod, Ashkelon, Bat Yam, Rishon LeZion, Sderot, Tel Aviv, and Yavne. Hamas possesses thousands of rockets in its arsenal, including the Ayyash 250, which has a purported range of up to 250 km (150 miles).

Additionally, the Lebanese militant group Hizballah has also launched several rockets and drones against targets in northern Israel. Al-Quds Brigades, the military wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad movement (PIJ), also claimed responsibility for a ground infiltration from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.

Hamas militants have reportedly taken at least 150 Israelis, including Israeli soldiers, hostage, holding them in and near the Gaza Strip. Casualty numbers continue to increase. Israeli authorities have indicated that at least 1,200 Israelis have been killed and 123 members of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). More than 3,000 people have been wounded in Israel amid the assault.

Gaza and the West Bank

Israeli forces have launched major retaliatory airstrikes in the Gaza Strip, killing at least 950 people and wounding more than 4,000 in the territory as part of "Operation Iron Swords." Israeli authorities have also ordered "a full siege on the Gaza Strip," cutting power, water, and gas amid the fighting; internet service disruptions have also been reported. Additionally, Palestinians clashed with Israeli forces in the West Bank Oct. 7, and a general strike was organized across the territory Oct. 8. Additional incidents of civil unrest and clashes with security forces were reported Oct. 9-10 and are likely to occur throughout the West Bank.

Political Response

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared Israel to be "at war" and called for a large mobilization of military reservists, at least 300,000 as of Oct. 10, in response to the Palestinian militant assault. Israeli military officials have also claimed that the country is prepared to defend against military action by Hizballah militants in Lebanon. Authorities have declared a state of national civil emergency across Israel, allowing law enforcement officers to "utilize additional responsibilities." An emergency government was formed Oct. 11 where opposing political leaders will be sworn in as ministers and a war cabinet be established; details remain unclear.

Travel Disruptions

The conflict has caused significant flight disruptions in Israel, with the Israel Airports Authority temporarily closing multiple airports in central and southern areas of the country Oct. 7. While Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport (TLV) reportedly remains open as of the afternoon of Oct. 11, several airlines have canceled flights to and from the airport, including American Airlines (AA), Air Canada (AC), Air France (AF), Cathay Pacific (CX), Delta Air Lines (DL), Lufthansa (LH), Emirates (EK), Hainan Airlines (HU), Ryanair (FR), Turkish Airlines (TK), and EgyptAir (MS) among others. British Airways (BA), Virgin Atlantic (VS), and El Al (LY), are still operating flights to and from TLV under adjusted schedules. Regulators, including the US Federal Aviation Authority, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency, and Israel's aviation authority, have urged airlines to use caution in Israeli airspace but stopped short of suspending flights.

Flight disruptions, including delays and cancellations, are likely at TLV and other airports in Israel until the situation stabilizes and rocket fire from the Gaza Strip subsides. Moreover, officials may suspend all flight operations at TLV on short notice in response to conflict developments. The Civil Aviation Authority also said Oct. 7 that no sports or leisure flights may take off into Israeli airspace until further notice.

The IDF closed roads near the border with the Gaza Strip, including Route 4 from the Zikim junction to Netiv Ha'asara, Route 34 from the Yad Mordechai junction to Nir Am, and Route 232 from Mefalsim to Sa'ad and Nir Yitzhak to Kerem Shalom. Authorities have also closed the Zikim beach on the Gaza border and suspended train services between Ashkelon and Sderot. Officials have announced that schools will remain closed in central and southern Israel until Oct. 10, and gradually resume classes from Oct. 11; however, the current status of schools in the regions remains unclear. Israel's Ministry of Tourism provided an update regarding the status of land border crossings on Oct. 9. For more information, click here.

Tactical Analysis

Heightened security measures and disruptions to transport and business will almost certainly continue in central and southern areas of Israel over at least the short term. Heightened security is likely at all Israeli ports of entry over the coming days, and the status of border crossings, airports, seaports, roads, and rail services may change on short notice in response to conflict developments. Israeli officials have evacuated numerous Israeli communities near the Gaza Strip in recent days; additional evacuations are possible over the short term.

Anti-Israel militants may stage opportunistic attacks amid the fighting from within the West Bank, southern Lebanon, and/or Israeli cities and towns. Demonstrations are also possible within Israel and the Palestinian Territories amid prevailing heightened tensions. Clashes between demonstrators and security forces cannot be ruled out at any demonstrations that materialize.

Context

Hamas, the Gaza-based militant group, launched a surprise land, sea, and air assault against Israel early Oct. 7. Hamas has called the operation "Al-Aqsa Flood." It is the largest and most coordinated attack against Israel in years. It coincided with the Jewish religious holiday Simchat Torah and, perhaps not coincidentally, 50 years and a day after the beginning of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Allies of Israel, including states with no official relations, such as Saudi Arabia, have condemned the attack, while supporters of Hamas, including Iran and Hizballah, have welcomed it.

Advice

Reconsider nonessential travel to Israel and the Palestinian Territories until the situation stabilizes, particularly to central and southern Israel. Reconfirm flights and the status of roads and border crossings. Arrive early at airports to allow additional time for processing. Monitor local media and abide by security forces' directives. If incoming mortar rounds or rockets are reported or warning sirens sound in the general vicinity, report to the nearest bomb shelter and await further instructions from authorities. If there is no shelter nearby, stay indoors and away from windows and exterior walls. If possible, move to a ground floor or basement. Maintain contact with diplomatic missions. Avoid all demonstrations and concentrations of security personnel.