Israel, PT: Tensions to remain elevated in East Jerusalem and West Bank through at least late October

Event

Tensions will almost certainly remain heightened in East Jerusalem and the West Bank through at least late October amid a series of deadly attacks, clashes, and Israeli security operations in Israel and the Palestinian Territories. Israeli security forces continue to launch frequent raids in the West Bank and impose movement restrictions on some communities in the territory, often in response to Palestinian attacks on Israeli settlers and security forces. Similarly, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have occasionally deployed additional units to the West Bank following settlers' violence against Palestinians.

Palestinian demonstrations and strikes are also almost certain over the coming weeks, particularly in the West Bank, to denounce Israeli security operations, building demolitions, associated clashes, and the arrests and killings of Palestinians. Activists will likely continue to demonstrate along the border between Israel and Gaza, leading to clashes with Israeli security forces. Further clashes between Palestinians and Israeli security forces are likely in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. An uptick in armed Palestinian attacks against Israeli individuals and interests is likely in the West Bank as Palestinian militant groups continue to advocate violence; attacks are also possible across Israel. Israeli settlers may stage further demonstrations and clash with Palestinian communities in the West Bank, prompting retaliatory Palestinian attacks near Israeli settlements.

Additional cross-border exchanges of fire between the IDF and Gaza-based militants are possible, particularly if there is a further increase in violence between Palestinians and Israeli authorities in East Jerusalem and the West Bank over the coming weeks. Flashpoint areas for the violence include parts of Jerusalem's Old City (including the Temple Mount/Al-Haram ash-Sharif compound, Damascus Gate, Lion's Gate, Herod's Gate, and Chain Gate), as well as Jenin, Nablus, Hebron, Palestinian refugee camps, and Israeli checkpoints and settlements in the West Bank.

Context

Authorities in Israel have bolstered security nationwide in the aftermath of several terrorist attacks since early spring of 2022. The series of attacks nationwide, including in Be'er Sheva, Hadera, Bnei Brak, Jerusalem, and Tel Aviv, prompted authorities to launch Operation Break the Wave in late March 2022. The operation focuses on the West Bank and aims to stem the wave of terrorist attacks that have killed more than 30 people and wounded dozens of others. As part of Break the Wave, the IDF has conducted regular raids against suspected Palestinian militant cells in Jenin and Nablus in recent weeks. Israeli forces have arrested more than 2,500 Palestinians and killed more than 200 others since the operation began; Israel asserts that most of those killed either clashed with the IDF or attacked Israeli forces or civilians.

Tensions between Israel and the Palestinian Territories have also increased in recent months amid exchanges of fire between the IDF and Palestinian militant groups. The latest violence began on May 9, as the IDF launched Operation Shield and Arrow to target the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militant group in the Gaza Strip. Hundreds of rocket exchanges between the Gaza Strip and Israel occurred May 10-13. On May 13, Israel and the PIJ agreed to the ceasefire brokered by Egypt. According to Gaza's Health Ministry, at least 33 Palestinians, including 18 PIJ militants, died between May 9-15, with another 151 wounded. In Israel, official sources report that PIJ rockets killed at least one person and injured 69 others.

Operation Shield and Arrow came after weeks of heightened tensions. On May 2, Gaza-based militants launched at least 21 rockets toward communities in Israel's Southern District. The rocket attacks came following the May 2 death of a Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) leader in Israeli custody after an 86-day hunger strike. Tensions heightened in April following clashes between the IDF and Palestinian worshippers at the Al-Aqsa Mosque April 4 after Palestinian worshippers barricaded themselves inside and refused to leave. Following the incident, Gaza-based militants launched rockets into southern Israel, prompting IDF retaliatory strikes. On April 6, Palestinian militants launched at least 34 rockets from Lebanese territory toward northern Israeli regions, resulting in the IDF's airstrikes targeting open areas in Qalili and Maaliya in Lebanon and locations in the Gaza Strip.

Advice

Exercise caution while operating in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. Avoid all demonstrations. Seek updated information on security conditions and possible movement restrictions in East Jerusalem and the West Bank before traveling. Heed the advice of local authorities. Avoid loitering near security checkpoints and main entrances to hotels, restaurants, or government buildings. Do not attempt to bypass security checkpoints without authorities' permission.