Madagascar: Further protests, clashes likely nationwide through October ahead of general elections

Event

Further protests are likely in Madagascar through early October ahead of the upcoming political campaign beginning Oct. 9 in preparation for the presidential elections on Nov. 9. Eleven opposition candidates known as the "collectif des 11" have attempted to stage multiple protests in Antananarivo against incumbent President Rajoelina's running despite him having been naturalized French, which could disqualify him from holding office. The latest protest at the May 13 plaza on Oct. 2 led to clashes with security forces. Authorities have reportedly increased police presence in the capital to contain any political rallies.

Political gatherings are likely nationwide ahead of the elections, especially in Antananarivo. Campaigns have historically proven tense periods in Madagascar, involving an increased risk of political violence. Authorities will almost certainly deploy heightened security along key thoroughfares and near government buildings during political rallies. Officials may impose additional restrictive measures, such as temporary curfews, internet shutdowns, or entry and exit restrictions, to deter violence or in the event of significant unrest.

Advice

Avoid all protests due to the likelihood of violence. Exercise caution near potential demonstration sites. If violence erupts, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building. Consider taking alternative routes to circumvent violence-affected areas. Monitor local media for details concerning political gatherings, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Follow instructions issued by local authorities. Leave immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building if violence erupts.