MENA: Pro-Palestinian rallies will almost certainly persist across the Middle East and North Africa through October /update 3

Event

Pro-Palestinian rallies, both organized and spontaneous, in response to the conflict between Israel and Gaza-based militant groups will almost certainly persist across the Middle East and North Africa through October. Demonstrations are likely to peak during any further escalation in violence, particularly if Israeli military forces move into Gaza, and on Friday Oct. 20 and 27, a common protest period.

Major gatherings were reported in multiple cities and towns on Oct. 13. In Baghdad, tens of thousands of people gathered in Tahrir Square. Similar rallies, with varying turnouts, were held in Algiers, downtown Amman, Beirut, Cairo, Doha, Muscat, Sana'a, and Tunis. State-sponsored events were reportedly held in urban centers across Iran. Many events carried a strong anti-Israeli and anti-Western sentiment. Most events were peaceful. In Jordan, demonstrators clashed with security personnel on a road route between Amman and the shared border with the West Bank. In Tripoli, Libya, the Embassy of the State of Palestine has called for a march from Algiers Square to Martyrs' Square from 16:30 Oct. 13.

Further rallies are likely to occur in urban centers regionwide; the locations below are likely gathering areas:

• Diplomatic missions and offices, particularly those of Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and the US and other Western nations.

• Demonstrators in Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan could organize rallies near the shared borders with Israel.

• Downtown areas, public squares, major government buildings, and mosques.

Officials will almost certainly deploy to monitor all gatherings and to manage crowds. Security personnel in Egypt, Jordan, and possibly Lebanon, will likely seek to prevent demonstrators from marching towards the shared border with Israel. As such, confrontations at these events are likely. The majority of events are, however, likely to be peaceful given the general support governments and publics have for the Palestinians. Road travel disruptions are almost certain near all events that occur. Businesses could also close in response to protests. Counter-protests are highly unlikely.

Attacks/Violent Incidents

Increased security is also likely near Jewish, Israeli, and overtly Western sites where the threat of violence is elevated. Individuals or small groups could attempt to conduct low-level attacks against these sites or individuals associated with them. Assailants could act on behalf of militant groupings or alone. On Oct. 8, an assailant shot and killed three people in Alexandria, including two Israeli nationals. Other incidents have been reported globally. Further such attacks, including gun, knife, vehicle ramming, or bomb attacks may occur.

Context

Hamas, the Gaza-based militant group, launched a surprise land, sea, and air assault against Israel early Oct. 7. Hamas has called the operation “Al-Aqsa Flood.” It is the largest and most coordinated attack against Israel in years. The assault coincided with the Jewish religious holiday Simchat Torah and, perhaps not coincidentally, 50 years and a day after the beginning of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Allies of Israel, including states with no official relations, such as Saudi Arabia, have condemned the attack, while supporters of Hamas, including Iran and Hizballah, have welcomed it. Israel in turn has launched a series of strikes on Hamas in Gaza with preparation for a ground assault reportedly underway as of Oct. 13.

Advice

Monitor developments closely. Exercise heightened caution near all likely protest sites and on likely protest days. Avoid all demonstrations as a precaution. Heed the instructions of officials. Plan for localized road travel delays should protests occur. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Western and Israeli nationals should maintain a low public profile. Consider avoiding sensitive topics of conversation, particularly with persons unknown to you.