MENA: Rallies protesting Gaza hospital strike, expressing support for Palestinians likely across region through at least late October /update 4

Event

Spontaneous and planned demonstrations denouncing the reported Oct. 17 strike on the Al-Ahli al-Arabi Hospital in the Gaza Strip and expressing support for Palestinians amid the Israel-Hamas war are likely across the Middle East and North Africa region through at least late October. Related rallies were reported in several cities in the region shortly after the reported Oct. 17 incident, including in Amman, Tunis, Ramallah, and Hebron. Gaza-based health authorities claimed that the strike, which reportedly killed hundreds of people, was carried out by Israeli forces; for their part, Israeli officials claimed that the blast was the result of a misfired rocket launched by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militant group.

Further conflict developments will continue to shape protest activity across the region, and the frequency and scale of demonstrations will probably spike following major escalations in conflict violence and in the event of a major Israeli ground assault within the Gaza Strip. Additionally, protest activity will likely surge across the region on Fridays, including on Oct. 20 and Oct. 27. While many demonstrations will almost certainly exhibit a strong anti-Israeli and anti-Western sentiment, significant violence is unlikely at most rallies.

Related demonstrations are likely to materialize in the following areas:

• Near diplomatic missions and offices, particularly those of Israel, the Palestinian Authority, and the US and other Western nations.

• In Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, near their respective borders with Israel.

• Downtown areas, public squares, major government buildings, and mosques.

Officials will almost certainly deploy a heightened security presence to monitor all gatherings and manage crowds. Security personnel in Egypt, Jordan, and possibly Lebanon will likely seek to prevent demonstrators from marching toward their respective borders with Israel. As such, confrontations are possible at any such events that materialize. Road transport disruptions are almost certain near all demonstrations. Businesses could also close in response to protests. Counterprotests are highly unlikely.

Attacks/Violent Incidents
An elevated threat of violence as well as increased security measures are likely near Jewish, Israeli, and overtly Western sites. Individuals or small groups could attempt to conduct attacks against these sites or individuals associated with them. Assailants could act on behalf of militant groups or alone. On Oct. 8, an assailant shot and killed three people in Alexandria, including two Israeli nationals. Other incidents have been reported globally. Additional attacks, including gun, knife, vehicle-ramming, or bomb attacks, cannot be ruled out.

Context

The Gaza-based Hamas militant group launched a surprise land, sea, and air assault against Israel early Oct. 7. Hamas has called the operation “Al-Aqsa Flood.” It is the largest and most coordinated attack against Israel in years. The assault coincided with the Jewish religious holiday Simchat Torah and occurred, perhaps not coincidentally, 50 years and a day after the beginning of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Allies of Israel, including states with no official relations, such as Saudi Arabia, have condemned the attack, while supporters of Hamas, including Iran and Hizballah, have welcomed it. Israel, in turn, has launched a series of strikes on Hamas personnel and sites in Gaza. An Israeli ground assault into the Gaza Strip remained likely as of Oct. 17.

Advice

Monitor developments closely. Exercise heightened caution near all likely protest sites and on likely protest days. Avoid all demonstrations as a precaution. Heed the instructions of officials. Plan for localized road transport delays near protest sites. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Western and Israeli nationals should maintain a low public profile. Consider avoiding sensitive topics of conversation, particularly with persons unknown to you.