24 Oct 2023 | 09:50 AM UTC
Mexico: Tropical Storm Otis tracking north-northwestward in the eastern North Pacific Ocean toward southwestern Mexico as of early Oct. 24 /update 1
TS Otis tracking north-northwestward in the North Pacific Ocean, early Oct. 24. Landfall forecast over Guerrero State, Mexico, Oct. 25.
Event
Tropical Storm Otis is tracking north-northeastward over the eastern North Pacific Ocean early Oct. 24. As of 04:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 335 km (210 miles) south-southeast of Acapulco, Guerrero State.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks northwestward towards southwestern Mexico through early Oct. 25, before making landfall north of Acapulco in Guerrero State during the early afternoon of Oct. 25. After landfall, Otis is expected to weaken into a tropical storm and then a tropical depression as it tracks northwestward over western Guerrero State through Oct. 26. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours.
As of early Oct. 24, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:
Hurricane Warning: Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo
Hurricane Watch: Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado
Tropical Storm Warning: Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado
Hurricane conditions are expected in parts of the hurricane warning area late Oct. 24-25. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin to impact parts of the tropical storm warning area late Oct. 24 before spreading northwestward through Oct. 25. Forecast models indicate rainfall totals of 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches) with localized maximums up to 37.5 cm (15 inches) across Guerrero State and western coastal areas of Oaxaca State through Oct. 27. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall and may be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells generated by Otis will affect portions of Mexico's southern coast over the coming days. The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the storm's path, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
