31 Oct 2023 | 05:28 PM UTC
Mozambique: Further protests likely nationwide through November following contested election results /update 4
Further protests likely in Mozambique through November after opposition rejects election results. Violence, increased security likely.
Further protests are likely across Mozambique through at least late November after political opposition parties rejected the results of the nation's Oct. 11 municipal elections. The latest round of demonstrations took place in cities across the country on Oct. 27, with reports of violence in Maputo, Nampula, and Nacala, among other locations. Security forces employed tear gas and reportedly fired warning shots over the heads of demonstrators to disperse crowds. According to authorities, about 70 protesters were arrested, with several individuals being injured. There have been conflicting reports of fatalities, with some civil society groups claiming two persons were killed in the violence but official sources asserting that there were no deaths.
Further protests are especially likely in large urban centers over the coming days. In Maputo, activists will probably concentrate along Avenida 24 de Julho and near the Statue of Samora Machel. Elsewhere, gatherings are likely in areas where the opposition enjoys a higher level of support, such as Beira and Quelimane, where protests may materialize near government buildings, political party offices, and along major routes.
Authorities will likely maintain an increased security posture nationwide. Measures may include the deployment of checkpoints, increased patrols near urban centers, border restrictions, and curfews. Clashes between supporters of the ruling Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo), the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo), and the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM) supporters, as well as with security forces, are likely. Disruptions to urban and intercity road travel, business operations, and telecommunications are likely during any significant civil unrest or preemptive security operations that may occur.
Exercise caution while operating in Mozambique. Avoid all gatherings, political events, and election-related activities, as well as concentrations of security forces. Exercise caution near police offices, and government buildings. If clashes break out, leave the area immediately and take shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Monitor local news for updates on possible curfews or information on road conditions, as protestors may not announce actions in advance. Heed the advice of local authorities. If encountering police checkpoints, do not attempt to bypass security without authorities' permission.
Approximately 22 parties and civil society organizations ran for local mayoral and legislative positions. Election day proceeded relatively peacefully, with minor delays reported in some localities. Demonstrations were reported immediately following the announcement of the results in Beira, Quelimane, Maputo, and Nampula. Clashes were also reported on Oct. 12 and 17, with security forces making use of tear gas to disperse protests.
The National Elections Commission (CNE) announced on Oct. 26 that Frelimo won 64 of 65 municipalities despite courts noting irregularities in areas of Maputo and Chokwe (Gaza Province); only Beira was won by the opposition MDM. Both the MDM and the lead opposition Renamo have rejected the results; Renamo called for nationwide protests on Oct. 17, announced it would legally challenge the results, and has threatened to boycott the October 2024 presidential elections.
Frelimo has won every national election since the end of Mozambique's civil war. Neither Renamo nor the MDM has been about to mount a serious challenge to the ruling party outside of certain pockets of opposition support. Election periods have consistently proven disruptive. Clashes between supporters of rival political camps, as well as between activists and police, are relatively common.
