Mozambique: Further protests likely nationwide through October following contested election results /update 3

Event

Further protests in connection with the municipal elections held on Oct. 11 are likely nationwide through October. As of mid-October, courts have issued orders to recount votes in Matola (Maputo Province). Courts have also requested new elections in Chokwe (Gaza Province) and in Kamavota and Kampfumo (both Maputo Province). The ruling Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo) party claims to have won 64 of 65 municipalities; only Beira was won by the opposition Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM). The lead opposition Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo) called for nationwide protests on Oct. 17, boycotted the national parliament sitting, and announced it would legally challenge the results.

Election day proceeded relatively peacefully, with minor delays reported in some localities. Demonstrations were reported immediately following the announcement of the results in Beira, Quelimane, Maputo, Nampula, and in Niassa Province. Clashes were reported on Oct. 12 and 17, with security forces making use of tear gas to disperse protests; violence resulted in at least one casualty in the Chiure Municipality (Cabo Delgado Province).

Further protests are likely in the coming days, especially in large urban centers. Protests in Maputo will likely concentrate along Avenida 24 de Julho and near the Statue of Samora Machel. Elsewhere gatherings are likely in areas where the opposition maintains good support such as Biera, Nampula, and Quelimane. In these areas, gatherings may occur near government buildings, political party offices, and along major routes.

Authorities will likely maintain an increased level of security nationwide. Measures may include the deployment of checkpoints, increased patrolling near urban centers, border restrictions, and implementation of curfews. Protests and clashes between Frelimo, Renamo, and MDM supporters, as well as with security forces, are likely. Disruptions to urban and intercity road travel, business operations, and telecommunications are likely amid significant bouts of civil unrest or preemptive security operations.

Context

Approximately 22 parties and civil society organizations ran for local mayoral and legislative positions. Frelimo previously controlled 44 municipalities; Renamo had eight, including Nampula and Quelimane, and MDM one in Beira. The government created twelve new municipalities for the 2023 ballot.

Frelimo has won every national election since the end of Mozambique's civil war, and besides some pockets of support for opposition parties, neither Renamo nor the MDM has proven able to challenge Frelimo. Election periods have consistently proven disruptive. Clashes between opposing supporters and with police are relatively common.

Advice

Exercise caution while operating in Mozambique. Avoid all gatherings, political events, and election-related activities, as well as concentrations of security forces. Exercise caution near police offices, and government buildings. If clashes break out, leave the area immediately and take shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Monitor local news for updates on possible curfews or information on road conditions, as protestors may not announce actions in advance. Heed the advice of local authorities. If encountering police checkpoints, do not attempt to bypass security without authorities' permission.