Mozambique: Increased security likely nationwide during and following local elections, Oct. 11

Event

Mozambique is holding municipal elections in its 65 municipalities on Oct. 11. 22 parties and civil society organizations are running for local mayoral and legislative positions. The ruling Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo) currently controls 44 municipalities; the lead opposition, the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo), has eight, including Nampula and Quelimane; and the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM) one in Beira. The government created twelve new municipalities for the 2023 ballot. Despite authorities calling for a peaceful campaign, high levels of censorship and political intolerance have been reported nationwide.

Authorities will likely maintain an increased level of security nationwide during the campaign period and in the days following the election. Measures may include the deployment of checkpoints, increased patrolling near urban centers, border restrictions, and implementation of curfews. Protests and clashes between Frelimo, Renamo, and MDM supporters, as well as with security forces, are likely. Protests are especially likely in opposition-controlled municipalities. Disruptions to urban and intercity road travel, business operations, and telecommunications are likely amid significant bouts of civil unrest or preemptive security operations.

Context

Frelimo has won every national election since the end of the civil war, and besides some pockets of support for opposition parties, neither Renamo nor the MDM has proven able to challenge Frelimo. Elections have consistently been tainted with allegations of voter fraud by opposition parties and international observers. Political campaigns in 2004, 2014, and 2019 were marked by violence, intimidation, censorship, and allegations of widespread fraud and breaches of electoral law on polling day.

Election periods have consistently proven disruptive in Mozambique. Frelimo, Renamo, and MDM supporters regularly engage in violence, especially in the run-up to voting, with clashes between opposing supporters and with police relatively common nationwide. Limited security resources and general operational ineffectiveness of police means that Mozambican forces often suffer from poor crowd control. As a result, security forces are often quick to resort to aggressive dispersal tactics when dealing with demonstrations.

Advice

Exercise caution while operating in Mozambique. Avoid all gatherings, political events, and election-related activities, as well as concentrations of security forces. Exercise caution near police offices, and government buildings. If clashes break out, leave the area immediately and take shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Monitor local news for updates on possible curfews or information on road conditions, as protestors may not announce actions in advance. Heed the advice of local authorities. If encountering police checkpoints, do not attempt to bypass security without authorities' permission.