23 Oct 2023 | 11:53 PM UTC
Nicaragua, Honduras: Tropical Depression Twenty-One forms near Bluefields, forecast to make landfall south of city late Oct. 23
Tropical Depression Twenty-One forms near southeastern coast of Nicaragua Oct. 23, threatening heavy rain; landfall forecast late Oct. 23.
Event
Tropical Depression Twenty-One has formed in the far western Caribbean Sea and is tracking westward toward the southeastern coast of Nicaragua late Oct. 23. As of 15:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 55 km (35 miles) southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will make landfall in southeastern Nicaragua, south of Bluefields, late Oct. 23 and then track northwestward before dissipating by 12:00 Oct. 24. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur over the coming hours.
Authorities had not issued any coastal watches or warnings in connection with Tropical Depression Twenty-One as of 15:00 Oct. 23. However, the system is likely to bring heavy rainfall to parts of Nicaragua and Honduras through at least late Oct. 24. Additional rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches), with maximum rainfall amounts of 30 cm (12 inches), are forecast across Nicaragua. The system is also forecast to produce additional rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches), with maximum rainfall amounts of 15 cm (6 inches), across southern and eastern Honduras. The heavy rainfall will likely cause flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Consequent landslides are also possible in elevated terrain.
The inclement weather could trigger evacuations as well as localized disruptions to business, transport, and utilities. The system may also render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports cannot be ruled out. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding often increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the storm's path, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
