Philippine Sea: Typhoon Koinu tracking northwestward south of Okinawa, Japan, as of early Oct. 2

Event

Typhoon Koinu (known in the Philippines as Jenny) is tracking northwestward in the central Philippine Sea early Oct. 2. As of 12:00 JST, the system's center of circulation is approximately 813 km (505 miles) south of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa Prefecture, Japan.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen further as it tracks northwestward across the Philippine Sea through early Oct. 3. It will then weaken slightly as it turns to track west-northwestward through Oct. 4 and make landfall as a typhoon over far southern Taiwan early Oct. 5. Koinu is forecast to weaken further as it tracks westward across the Taiwan Strait towards Guangdong Province, China through early Oct. 7. Uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Oct. 2, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) 1 across Batanes, Cagayan, including the Babuyan Islands, and northern and eastern Isabela, Apayao, and northern Ilocos Norte provinces. Rainfall of up to 10 cm (4 inches) is forecast over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and northern mainland Cagayan provinces through early Oct. 3. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau
China Meteorological Administration