South Pacific Ocean: TC 01P tracking south-southwestward across the South Pacific Ocean, northeast of Temotu Province, Solomon Islands as of early Oct. 22

Event

Tropical Cyclone 01P is tracking south-southwestward across the South Pacific Ocean, northeast of Temotu Province, Solomon Islands, early Oct. 22. As of 08:00 SBT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 926 km (575 miles) north of Port Vila, Vanuatu.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a Category 3 tropical cyclone as it tracks generally southwards and makes a close approach to Temotu Province, Solomon Islands, through the evening of Oct. 23, passing just east of the islands. The system will then strengthen further into a Category 4 tropical cyclone as it turns to track southwestwards and makes landfall over the Torres Islands, Vanuatu early Oct. 24. After landfall, the storm is likely to continue tracking southwestwards across the Coral Sea, away from Vanuatu while weakening into a Category 2 tropical cyclone through early Oct. 26 before turning to track southwards towards northwestern New Caledonia through early Oct. 27. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Oct. 22, the Solomon Islands Meteorological Service has issued a special weather bulletin; heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely across Temotu Province. Landslides and flooding in areas near hilly terrain, close to water bodies, and low-lying areas are possible.

The Vanuatu Meteorological Service has issued a tropical cyclone warning; a blue alert is in place for Torba Province. A severe weather warning is also in effect for Torba. Isolated heavy rainfall is forecast, with officials advising residents in low-lying areas to take precautions for possible landslides and flooding in areas close to river banks. Seas will be rough to very rough, with moderate to heavy swells likely over the coming days. Authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days as the storm progresses.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a severe health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Meteo France New Caledonia
Solomon Islands Meteorological Service
Vanuatu Meteorological Service