South Pacific Ocean: TC Lola tracking south-southeastward across the South Pacific Ocean, northeast of Vanuatu, as of Oct. 23 /update 1

Event

Tropical Cyclone Lola has intensified into a Category 3 tropical cyclone and is tracking south-southeastward across the South Pacific Ocean, northeast of Vanuatu, Oct. 23. As of 14:00 VUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 587 km (365 miles) north of Port Vila, Vanuatu.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen further but remain at Category 3 tropical cyclone strength as it turns to track southwestwards and makes landfall over Maewo and Ambae islands, Vanuatu, late Oct. 24 before weakening and making another landfall over far northern Malekula Island early Oct. 25. After landfall, the storm is likely to track southwestwards then southwards across the Coral Sea, away from Vanuatu, while weakening into a Category 1 tropical cyclone through early Oct. 27 before turning to track southeastwards and make another landfall over South Province, New Caledonia, early Oct. 28. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Oct. 23, the Solomon Islands Meteorological Service is maintaining a tropical cyclone warning for Temotu Province; heavy rain and thunderstorms are likely. Landslides and flooding in areas near hilly terrain, close to water bodies, and low-lying areas are possible.

The Vanuatu Meteorological Service has issued a tropical cyclone warning; a red alert for Torba Province, a yellow alert for Sanma and Penama provinces, and a blue alert for Malampa Province. Heavy rainfall with flash flooding is likely over low-lying areas and areas close to river banks, including coastal flooding, through Oct. 24. Very rough seas with heavy to phenomenal swells are forecast over all of Vanuatu waters. Authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days as the storm progresses.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a severe health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Meteo France New Caledonia
Solomon Islands Meteorological Service
Vanuatu Meteorological Service