07 Oct 2023 | 12:50 AM UTC
UK: Adverse winter weather forecast across Scotland through at least Oct. 8
Severe winter weather forecast across Scotland, UK, through Oct. 8. Transport disruptions likely.
Event
Heavy rainfall is forecast across most of Scotland through at least Oct. 8. The UK Met Office has issued amber (middle level on a three-tier scale) warnings for rain across parts of Central, Tayside, and Fife, Grampian, Highlands and Eilean Siar, and Strathclyde regions. Widespread rainfall of 8-10 cm (3-4 inches) is forecast, with as much as 15-18 cm (6-7 inches) possible for the wettest areas. Rain is likely to slowly clear to the north of the warning area from early Oct. 8. Yellow rain warnings are in place across the rest of the affected area. The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) has issued red flood warnings (middle level on a three-tier scale) across parts of Ayrshire and Arran, Central, and Findhorn Nairn Moray and Speyside. Orange flood alerts are in place across the rest of the affected area.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rain has saturated the soil.
Floodwaters and debris flows will likely render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities will probably temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.
Flooding will likely block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are probable in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation. Severe weather will likely trigger flight delays and cancellations at regional airports.
Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and employees' inability to reach work sites. Electricity and telecommunications service disruptions are possible where significant flooding, strong winds, or landslides impact utility networks.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Do not check out of accommodations until onward travel is confirmed. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where adverse weather conditions have been forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
