Vanuatu: Tropical Cyclone Lola tracking southwestward over central Vanuatu as of Oct. 25 /update 4

Event

Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone Lola is tracking southwestward over central Vanuatu Oct. 25 following landfall over northern Pentecost Island late Oct. 24 and northern Malekula Island early Oct. 25. As of 14:00 VUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 198 km (123 miles) north-northwest of Port Vila, Vanuatu.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken into a Category 2 severe tropical cyclone as it tracks southwestwards across the Coral Sea through early Oct. 26 before weakening further into a Category 1 tropical cyclone as it turns to track southward and approaches New Caledonia through early Oct. 27. Lola is forecast to turn to track southeastward and make landfall over eastern North Province, New Caledonia, late Oct. 27. After passing over New Caledonia, Lola is forecast to weaken into a tropical disturbance and then dissipate as it moves south-southeastward across the Coral Sea and into the South Pacific Ocean. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Oct. 25, the Vanuatu Meteorological Service has issued a tropical cyclone warning, a red alert for Penama, Malampa, and Shefa provinces, and a blue alert for Tafea Province. Heavy rainfall with flash flooding is likely over low-lying areas and areas close to river banks, including coastal flooding across Penama, Malampa, and Shefa provinces, through Oct. 26. Very rough seas with heavy to phenomenal swells are forecast over Vanuatu's waters. Meteo France New Caledonia has issued yellow (lowest level on a three-tier scale) strong wind warnings across Belep, northeastern Grande Terre, Ouvea, and Lifou. Authorities will likely update and extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days as the storm progresses.

Authorities have established emergency shelters in northern Vanuatu before the storm's approach, including in Luganville on Espiritu Santo Island. Fiji Airways (FJ) canceled flights between Nadi in Fiji and Port Vila in Vanuatu Oct. 25. Air Vanuatu (NF) canceled flights connecting Port Vila with Auckland, New Zealand, and Sydney, Australia, Oct. 25. Air Vanuatu also canceled most domestic flights at least until Oct. 26.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Further flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a severe health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Meteo France New Caledonia
Vanuatu Meteorological Service