Vanuatu: Tropical Cyclone Lola tracking southwestward over northern Vanuatu as of late Oct. 24 /update 3

Event

Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone Lola is tracking southwestward over northern Vanuatu late Oct. 24. As of 23:00 VUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 233 km (145 miles) north of Port Vila, Vanuatu.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will make landfall over Pentecost Island in the coming hours and Malakula Island early Oct. 25. The system is expected to weaken into a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone as it passes over the islands and into the Coral Sea. The storm is then likely to weaken further into a Category 2 and then Category 1 tropical cyclone as it tracks southwestward then southward across the Coral Sea, away from Vanuatu, Oct. 25-26. Lola is forecast to weaken further into a tropical low as it approaches New Caledonia through early Oct. 27, before making landfall over central Grand Terre Island Oct. 27. After passing over New Caledonia, Lola is forecast to weaken into a tropical disturbance and then dissipate as it tracks south-southeastward across the Coral Sea. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Oct. 24, the Vanuatu Meteorological Service has issued a tropical cyclone warning; a red alert for Torba, Sanma, Penama, Malampa, and Shefa provinces, and a blue alert for Tafea Province. Heavy rainfall with flash flooding is likely over low-lying areas and areas close to river banks, including coastal flooding, through Oct. 25. Destructive winds are also forecast across northern and central regions. Very rough seas with heavy to phenomenal swells are forecast over all of Vanuatu's waters. Authorities have established emergency shelters across parts of northern Vanuatu ahead of the storm's approach, including in Luganville on Espiritu Santo Island.

Meteo France New Caledonia has issued yellow (lowest level on a three-tier scale) heavy rain, thunderstorm, and strong wind warnings across the Loyalty Islands and the northeastern half of Grande Terre. Authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days as the storm progresses.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a severe health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Meteo France New Caledonia
Vanuatu Meteorological Service