01 Nov 2023 | 10:10 AM UTC
Central America: Tropical Storm Pilar tracking northwestward over the eastern North Pacific Ocean as of early Nov. 1 /update 2
TS Pilar tracking northwestward off the coast of El Salvador early Nov, 1. Forecast to track away from Central America in the coming days.
Tropical Storm Pilar is tracking northwestward over the eastern North Pacific Ocean having stalled off the coast of El Salvador early Nov. 1. As of 04:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 175 km (110 miles) south-southwest of San Salvador, El Salvador.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will turn westward during Nov. 1 before accelerating west-southwestward away from Central America through Nov. 3. The system is forecast to weaken slightly as it tracks west-southwestward and then westward out into the North Pacific Ocean through early Nov. 6. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of early Nov. 1, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:
Tropical storm watch: Entire coast of El Salvador; Pacific coast of Honduras, including the Gulf of Fonseca; from the Honduras-Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas early Nov. 1. Forecast models indicate the storm may generate rainfall totals of 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches), with localized maximums of up to 37.5 cm (15 inches), over parts of Central America from El Salvador across southern Honduras, western Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica through Nov. 1. The heavy rainfall will likely cause flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Consequent landslides are also possible in elevated terrain. Swells generated by Pilar, which are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, are expected to continue to affect parts of the Pacific coast of Central America over the coming days.
As of early Nov. 1, authorities in El Salvador have reported three fatalities as heavy rainfall associated with Pilar has triggered flooding and several landslides in parts of western El Salvador. Authorities have evacuated around 200 people from parts of La Libertad, La Union, San Salvador, and Sonsonate departments. El Salvador's National Civil Protection System has issued a red alert nationwide due to Tropical Storm Pilar and authorities also declared a State of National Emergency for 15 days from Oct. 29 to enable the government to respond to the possible effects of the storm. Schools and other educational facilities across El Salvador have been closed through at least Nov. 1. Authorities in Nicaragua have issued a yellow alert across the country due to Tropical Storm Pilar.
The inclement weather could trigger evacuations as well as localized disruptions to business, transport, and utilities. The system may also render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports cannot be ruled out. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding often increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the storm's path, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
