China: Periods of air pollution likely to continue in northern provinces through March

Periods of heavy air pollution are likely in parts of northern China during the late autumn and winter months. While pollution is usually greatest in areas in and around Hebei Province, including Beijing, periods of significant air pollution also typically occur in parts of Henan, Liaoning, Shandong, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia. Air pollution-induced low visibility can lead to ground transport and flight disruptions throughout the affected area. Visibility problems are typically worst late December-February, but periodic disruptions can occur November-March. The highest concentrations of air pollution usually occur during periods of extended air stagnation, when pollution from industry, residential heating, and automobiles cannot escape the region. Severe pollution levels tend to spike during winter cold spells when many people burn low-quality coal to heat their homes and businesses.

The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) issues air pollution alerts on a four-tier scale:

• Blue (least severe with Air Quality Index over 200)

• Yellow (second least severe with Air Quality Index over 300)

• Orange (second most severe with Air Quality Index over 400)

• Red (most severe with Air Quality Index over 450)

Reduced visibility during periods of severe air pollution may cause transport disruptions. Flight delays may occur at Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK) and other airports in the region, especially during overnight and early morning hours when relative humidity is high. Air pollution does not typically affect regional high-speed rail, but conventional trains are sometimes forced to operate at reduced speeds. Traffic disruptions resulting from inadequate visibility are also common on highways and secondary roads in the region during periods of severe pollution, including the G3 (Beijing-Taipei Expressway) and the G4 (Beijing-Hong Kong-Macau Expressway).

Periods of hazardous air quality typically prompt officials to implement temporary commercial and transport restrictions. Provincial and municipal officials usually take measures to reduce heavy industry and sometimes restrict vehicle operations in response to severe air pollution. Under a red alert, Beijing authorities restrict private vehicle use within the municipality; officials only permit vehicles with even-numbered plates to drive on even calendar days and odd-numbered plates on odd days. All large-scale outdoor construction projects are also suspended during times of severe air pollution. Under previous orange- and red-level alerts, officials throughout the region have also ordered thousands of heavy industry and manufacturing facilities to cease operations until authorities lifted the advisories. Similar policies are possible in areas throughout the region during periods of severe pollution. Such measures do not typically lead to severe supply chain disruptions, but there could be delays to some time-sensitive orders and deliveries.