Cuba: Adverse weather forecast across much of the country through at least Nov. 19

Heavy rainfall is forecast across much of Cuba through at least Nov. 19. The Meteorological Institute of the Republic of Cuba (INSMET) has forecast isolated showers across much of the country early Nov. 16, with more persistent rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms in central and eastern regions during the afternoon. Further showers of varying intensity are forecast across Cuba Nov. 17-19. INSMET has issued a weather advisory warning that an area of low pressure in the Caribbean Sea with the potential for cyclonic development will likely bring heavy rainfall, particularly in eastern areas, over the coming days. The most intense rainfall is likely in Guantanamo, Holguin, and Santiago de Cuba provinces.

Heavy downpours in western Cuba Nov. 15 triggered flooding in parts of Havana. Affected municipalities include Centro Habana, Cerro, and Habana Vieja. Several streets have been made impassable by floodwaters and cultural events have been canceled. Previous heavy rainfall in Moa municipality in Holguin Province caused the Cabana River to overflow and the resultant flooding damaged hundreds of homes. Additional downpours in the coming days will likely exacerbate the situation in areas where river levels are already high and the ground is saturated due to previous rainfall.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.