06 Nov 2023 | 09:26 AM UTC
India: Security tightened for elections in Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, and Chhattisgarh states, Nov. 7-Dec. 5
Tight security certain in five states of India for elections, Nov. 7-Dec. 5. Localized disruptions likely; protests, clashes possible.
Political rallies and increased security are certain amid scheduled Legislative Assembly elections in five states across India Nov. 7-Dec. 5. Over 161 million people in Mizoram, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, and Chhattisgarh will vote at over 100, 000 polling stations to elect 679 representatives. Voting will occur in Chhattisgarh Nov. 7 and 17, Mizoram Nov. 7, Madhya Pradesh Nov. 17, Rajasthan Nov. 23, and Telangana Nov. 30. Vote counting and declaration of results will take place in all five states Dec. 3, and elections will officially conclude no later than Dec. 5. In addition to declaring paid holidays for eligible voters on polling days, authorities typically restrict alcohol sales during elections and heighten security at government buildings, rally venues, poll stations, political party offices, interstate borders, and crowded public squares.
Major political parties with significant campaign activity include the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Indian National Congress (INC), as well as Mizo National Front (MNF) in Mizoram and Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in Telangana. The largest gatherings are likely in urban centers, especially state capitals such as including Jaipur, Raipur, Bhopal, Aizawl, and Hyderabad; tens of thousands of supporters may attend events addressed by top leaders such as Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the BJP, and former INC President Rahul Gandhi. Popular rally venues include stadiums and public grounds. Authorities will almost certainly tighten security near all gatherings, especially those attended by prominent political leaders. While most campaign events will likely pass peacefully, isolated clashes between supporters from rival political groups cannot be ruled out.
Various groups may demonstrate over their grievances in the coming weeks. Additional protests denouncing ruling state governments as well as alleged unfairness of political parties in allocating candidacy tickers are probable before elections across all five states. Attacks and vandalism targeting government buildings, politicians' residences, and political party offices have occurred in recent weeks. Protests by political parties are also likely during and after the election, especially if there are allegations of irregularities. Clashes are possible, especially if police forcibly prevent or disperse demonstrations. However, any unrest will probably be localized, as security forces will likely respond quickly to violent demonstrations. Localized transport disruptions may occur near protest venues, especially if protesters block roadways.
Although there is no specific terror threat to the elections, authorities are almost certain to remain vigiliant and exercise counterterror measures, including during the national holiday for Diwali Nov. 12. The tightest security is likely in rural districts of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Telangana with known left-wing extremist activity. These include Balrampur, Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Dhamtari, Gariyaband, Kabirdham, Kanker, Kondagaon, Mahasamund, Mungeli, Narayanpur, Rajnandgaon and Sukma in Chhattisgarh, Balaghat, Mandla, and Dindori in Madhya Pradesh, as well as Adilabad, Bhadradri-Kothagudem, Jayashankar-Bhupalpally, Komaram-Bheem, Mancherial, and Mulugu in Telangana. Insurgents may call for election boycotts and/or shutdown strikes, attracting minimal support. They may also engage in voter intimidation and conduct small-scale bombing or armed attacks on officials, government buildings, infrastructure projects, transport services, and security installations.
Authorities have planned at least 940 security checkpoints across the five states to monitor and prevent election inducements; random checks of non-chartered flights, railways, vehicles, and deliveries are likely. Security deployment and police roadblocks near large rallies and at nomination, voting, and counting centers are possible, potentially prompting localized business and transport disruptions. In the event of significant violence, officials may impose localized movement and telecommunication restrictions.
Prepare for increased security measures such as roadblocks and identification checks in the affected regions through at least Dec. 5. Avoid night travel in insurgency-affected districts due to the threat of sabotage attacks. Allow additional travel time to reach destinations near political events and popular protest sites. Exercise caution near political party offices, rallies, polling stations, security force checkpoints, and government buildings due to the potential for demonstrations, clashes, and militant attacks. If an unruly gathering forms, immediately leave the area and seek shelter at a safe, nongovernmental building. Confirm all business appointments and transport reservations on polling days as a precaution. Carry valid identification and heed instructions from security personnel.
Elections for these five states account for roughly 15% of India’s population, and are the final assembly elections before India gears up for general elections in April/May 2024. The polls are widely seen as crucial in shaping electoral narratives, coalition agreements, and leadership decisions for newly formed opposition coalition bloc Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA).
The states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh will feature near bipolar contests between the national ruling BJP and INC, offering an opportunity to gauge their respective popularities before next year. Currently, Madhya Pradesh is controlled by the BJP, while the other two states are controlled by the INC. While the BJP has been making efforts to return to power in Rajasthan, the low vote share lead that the BJP has had over INC in earlier years reduces the possibility of a BJP victory. Respective ruling regional parties in the remaining states of Mizoram and Telangana are set to face three-cornered fights against the INC and BJP, but they are likely to retain their majority. While isolated clashes between supporters from rival political parties are almost certain, widespread violence or terror attacks are unlikely.
