13 Nov 2023 | 09:43 AM UTC
South Pacific Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Mal tracking southeastward in the South Pacific Ocean as of late Nov. 13
Tropical Cyclone Mal tracking southeastward in the South Pacific Ocean late Nov. 13. Close approach to western Fiji forecast late Nov. 14.
Category 1 Tropical Cyclone Mal is tracking southeastward across the South Pacific Ocean late Nov. 13. As of 18:00 FJT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 1,052 km (654 miles) northwest of Suva, Fiji.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a Category 2 tropical cyclone as it continues to track southeastward late Nov.13-14. The system is expected to pass close to western Fiji late Nov. 14-early Nov. 15, before moving south of the islands late Nov. 15. Mal will likely weaken into a Category 1 tropical cyclone and then a tropical low as it continues to track southeastward across the South Pacific Ocean Nov. 16-17. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.
As of late Nov. 13, the Fiji Meteorological Service has warned that strong winds may begin to affect the country in the coming hours, with the most destructive winds likely late Nov. 14-early Nov. 15. Heavy rainfall is likely across Fiji through at least early Nov. 15. The service has issued storm warnings for Yasawa and Mamanuca island groups and northern and western Viti Levu. Storm alerts are in force for southern Viti Levu, Vatulele, Kadavu, and nearby smaller islands. Gale warnings are in place for Rotuma, western Vanua Levu, eastern Viti Levu, and Lomaiviti Island Group. Strong wind warnings are in place for the rest of Fiji and heavy rain warnings are in force across Fiji. Authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days as the storm progresses.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
