01 Nov 2023 | 12:45 PM UTC
Tunisia: Protests and clashes likely to continue nationwide through at least late November
Protests likely in Tunisia through at least late November; heightened security, transport disruptions, clashes likely.
Protests and associated clashes are likely across Tunisia through at least late November due to the political situation, high unemployment, rising inflation, and opposition parties' continued calls for demonstrations against the government. Thousands of protesters have periodically taken to the streets of Tunis and other major cities in response to deteriorating socioeconomic conditions and President Kais Saied's decision to rule by decree. Recently, the pro-Palestinian protests have increased in number as a result of the Israel-Hamas conflict. An increasing flow of migrants traveling through Tunisia to reach Europe has also led to violent protests and confrontations between locals and sub-Saharan migrants throughout the country.
Authorities will likely maintain heightened security over the coming weeks. Security personnel could deploy to additional locations as new demonstrations materialize. Protests may impact major road routes, including access points to ports of entry and exit. Transport and business disruptions are probable near any future demonstrations and associated clashes.
Avoid all protests due to the potential for violence. Exercise caution near likely rally locations. Monitor local media for protest activity, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Confirm the availability of transport and allow additional time to reach destinations. Plan for increased security and localized transport and business disruptions near demonstration sites. Follow the instructions of security officials.
The demonstrations and the prevailing sense of political uncertainty in Tunisia come at a time when the country's economy has been severely weakened by the COVID-19 pandemic and an increase in the prices of various goods, such as food and fuel. Tunisia's unemployment rate is around 16 percent and will likely rise over the coming months. Activists have staged protests in several cities to denounce the economic hardship and have occasionally burned tires, blocked roads, and engaged in acts of vandalism and looting. In response, Tunisian authorities have arrested hundreds of people and deployed the military to some cities on multiple occasions.
Meanwhile, President Kais Saied has bypassed democratic rule over the past year by ruling through decree, dissolving the Parliament, and dismissing the prime minister. In July 2022, through a referendum where only 30.5 percent of the population voted, Saied changed the constitution and created a presidential system, further strengthening his control. The new constitution has angered most opposition parties as it has reduced the power of the Parliament and many Tunisian institutions. Saied has also increased its crackdown on opposition leaders, journalists, and civil society activists. On April 18, 2023, authorities arrested Rached Ghannouchi, president of the opposition party Ennahda, and closed all offices of the Salvation Front, the opposition coalition to which Ennahda belongs. This decision has been perceived as Saied's latest attempt to silence opposition, leading to widespread criticism of the Tunisian government's authoritarian tendencies.
Finally, the increasing flow of migrants is putting pressure on Tunisia's already tense political, economic, and security situation. In a speech published on Feb. 21, 2023, Saied referred to the common far-right conspiracy theory of "great replacement" to warn that sub-Saharan migrants were attempting to change Tunisia's demographics to make it "only an African country that has no affiliation to Arab and Islamic nations." This rhetoric spurred a wave of racist attacks, protests, and harassment of black migrants, regardless of their migration status.
