Australia: Tropical Cyclone Jasper tracking west-northwestward east of Queensland as of the afternoon of Dec. 12 /update 5

Tropical Cyclone Jasper has strengthened into a Category 2 tropical cyclone and is tracking west-northwestward in the Coral Sea to the east of Queensland, Australia, the afternoon of Dec. 12. As of 13:00 AEST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 233 km (145 miles) east-northeast of Cairns.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen slightly but remain a Category 2 tropical cyclone through Dec. 12. Jasper is forecast to make landfall over the coast of Far North Queensland between Cape Tribulation and Port Douglas early Dec. 13. After landfall, Jasper is forecast to weaken rapidly as it tracks westward across the Far North region through Dec. 13 before dissipating over the western part of the region early Dec. 14. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of the afternoon of Dec. 12, the Australia Bureau of Meteorology has issued a cyclone warning between Cape Flattery to Lucinda, including Cairns and Innisfail, and extending inland to include Chillagoe. A cyclone watch is in place from Cape Melville to Cape Flattery, extending inland to include Palmerville. Locally intense rainfall, which may lead to dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding, is likely about the coast and ranges between Cape Flattery and Port Douglas and areas near the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. Six-hourly rainfall totals of 25-30 cm (10-12 inches) are likely, with 24-hourly totals of 40-50 cm (16-20 inches) possible. Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely between Cape Flattery and Ingham early Dec. 13. Six-hourly totals of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) are likely, with isolated falls of 25 cm (10 inches) possible along the coast and adjacent ranges.

Destructive winds of up to 140 kph (87 mph) may develop between Wujal Wujal and Innisfail, including Cairns early Dec. 13, while gales with damaging wind gusts of up to 120 kph (75 mph) are forecast along the Queensland coast and adjacent ranges between Cape Flattery and Lucinda, including Cairns, late Dec. 12 and are likely to extend inland to Palmerville and Chillagoe after the cyclone has crossed the coast Dec. 13.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a storm surge is likely between Cooktown and Lucinda on the high tides Dec. 12-13. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. A flood watch is in effect for the North Tropical Coast as well as parts of the Cape York Peninsula and Gulf County; minor to major flooding is possible from Dec. 13.

Cairns Airport (CNS) has warned that operations are progressively winding down and will likely cease the evening of Dec. 12. Various airlines have canceled flights at Cairns from the evening of Dec. 12. Cairns Airport domestic and international terminals will close Dec. 13. The airport will resume operations when it is safe to do so. Authorities have evacuated Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) staff from the Willis Island weather station.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.