Australia: Tropical Cyclone Jasper tracking west-southwestward east of Queensland as of the afternoon of Dec. 11 /update 4

Tropical Cyclone Jasper has weakened into a Category 1 tropical cyclone and is tracking west-southwestward in the Coral Sea to the east of Queensland the afternoon of Dec. 11. As of 13:00 AEST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 487 km (303 miles) east-southeast of Cairns, Australia.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will largely remain a Category 1 tropical cyclone through the evening of Dec. 12. Jasper is forecast to make landfall over the coast of Far North Queensland, Australia, near Cairns, late Dec. 12. After landfall, Jasper is forecast to weaken rapidly as it tracks westward across the Far North region through Dec. 13 before dissipating over the western part of the region early Dec. 14. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of the afternoon of Dec. 11, the Australia Bureau of Meteorology has issued a cyclone warning between Cooktown and Townsville, including Cairns, Innisfail, and Palm Island as well as a cyclone watch from Cape Melville to Cooktown, extending inland to include Palmerville and Chillagoe. Damaging winds with gusts over 90 kph (55 mph) are forecast along the Queensland coast between Cooktown and Townsville, including Cairns, Dec. 12 and are likely to extend inland to Palmerville and Chillagoe after the cyclone has crossed the coast Dec. 13. Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely between Cape Flattery and Cardwell Dec. 13. Six-hourly totals of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) are likely, with isolated falls of 25 cm (10 inches) possible along the coast and adjacent ranges. As the cyclone approaches the coast, a storm surge is likely between Cooktown and Townsville. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore.

A severe weather warning for damaging winds is in place over parts of Herbert and Lower Burdekin and Central Coast and Whitsundays forecast districts in Queensland. A flood watch is in effect for the North Tropical Coast as well as parts of the Cape York Peninsula and Gulf County; minor to major flooding is possible from Dec. 13.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.