Australia: Tropical Cyclone Jasper tracking westward after making landfall over northeastern Queensland as of late Dec. 13 /update 8

Tropical Cyclone Jasper has weakened into a Category 1 tropical cyclone after slowly making landfall near Wujal Waujal in Queensland's Far North Region during the afternoon and evening Dec. 13. Jasper is tracking westward over far northern Queensland late Dec. 13; as of 22:00 AEST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 148 km (92 miles) northwest of Cairns.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken further into a tropical low and then tropical disturbance as it tracks westward and then west-northwestward over northern Queensland through early Dec. 15. The system is expected to emerge into the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria during the afternoon of Dec. 15 and is expected to remain a tropical disturbance as it tracks northwestward across the gulf Dec. 15-16. It remains uncertain at this stage whether the system will dissipate over the Gulf of Carpenatria or redevelop into a tropical cyclone as it moves toward the Top End region of the Northern Territory. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Dec. 13, the Australia Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is maintaining a cyclone warning between Cooktown and Cairns, not including Cairns, and extending inland to include the Atherton Tablelands, Chillagoe, and Palmerville. Locally intense rainfall, which may lead to dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding, is likely along the coast and adjacent ranges between Cape Tribulation and Cairns, as well as areas near the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. Six-hourly rainfall totals of 25-30 cm (10-12 inches) are likely, with 24-hourly totals of 40-50 cm (16-20 inches) possible. Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely between Cape Flattery and Ingham. Six-hourly totals of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) are likely, with isolated falls of 25 cm (10 inches) possible along the coast and adjacent ranges.

Gales with damaging wind gusts of up to 120 kph (75 mph) are occurring along the coast between Cooktown and Cairns, but not including Cairns. Damaging wind gusts are forecast to extend further inland to the Atherton Tablelands and as far as Palmerville and Chillagoe late Dec. 13. A severe weather warning for heavy to locally intense rainfall and damaging winds is in place for parts of Peninsula, Gulf Country, North Tropical Coast and tablelands, and Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders forecast districts. Flood watches and warnings are also in place for the North Tropical Coast, parts of the Cape York Peninsula, and Gulf Country. Large waves may produce minor coastal flooding along parts of the northern coast of Queensland during high tide early Dec. 14.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services warned residents from Cape Flattery to Cairns, including Wujal Wujal, Port Douglas, Hopevale, Yarrabah, and inland to Chillagoe and Palmerville, to take immediate shelter as the cyclone approached Wujal Wujal Dec. 13. The Cairns Local Disaster Management Group (LDMG) issued a cyclone warning advising people to take shelter during the passing of the storm during the afternoon Dec. 13 and earlier issued voluntary evacuation orders due to the risk of storm surge for around 15,000 residents late Dec. 12. People in at-risk Red Zone areas of the city have been advised to consider leaving their homes or moving to a safer place on higher ground or a higher floor. Flooding is also possible in areas within the Orange Zone. Details on areas within each zone can be found here. Shelters have been established for those in the red and orange zones without a safe place to go at Edmonton Storm Tide Cyclone Shelter, PCYC, Walker Road, and Redlynch State College, Jungara Road. Reports indicate that more than 35,000 homes and businesses are without power across affected parts of northern Queensland late Dec. 13, with more than 20,000 of those affected in Cairns.

Cairns Airport (CNS) announced that it was ceasing operations from 20:00 Dec. 12 due to the approach of Jasper and has subsequently stated that it hopes to resume passenger flights from 08:30 Dec. 14. Lingering disruptions are possible over the coming days as airlines work to clear passenger backlogs and flight times may be subject to change; travelers are advised to check the status of their flights with their airlines prior to departure. Authorities have evacuated BOM staff from the Willis Island weather station. Bus services have been suspended in Cairns, and many schools and other educational establishments have been closed across the affected areas Dec. 13. Several roads in the affected areas have been closed due to Jasper as of late Dec. 13, including those linking Cairns with the Tablelands.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.