Australia: Tropical Cyclone Jasper tracking westward to the east of northern Queensland as of late Dec. 12 /update 6

Tropical Cyclone Jasper has weakened into a Category 1 tropical cyclone and is tracking westward in the Coral Sea to the east of northern Queensland, Australia, late Dec. 12. As of 22:00 AEST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 224 km (139 miles) northeast of Cairns.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will maintain Category 1 tropical cyclone strength through Dec. 13 as it tracks westward and makes landfall over the coast of Far North Queensland between Cape Tribulation and Cooktown during the afternoon of Dec. 13. After landfall, Jasper is forecast to weaken rapidly as it tracks westward and then northwestward across the Far North region Dec. 14 and is expected to dissipate before reaching the Gulf of Carpentaria late Dec. 14. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Dec. 12, the Australia Bureau of Meteorology has issued a cyclone warning between Cape Melville and Lucinda, including Cairns and Innisfail, and extending inland to include Chillagoe and Palmerville. Locally intense rainfall, which may lead to dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding, is likely about the coast and ranges between Cape Flattery and Port Douglas and areas near the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. Six-hourly rainfall totals of 25-30 cm (10-12 inches) are likely, with 24-hourly totals of 40-50 cm (16-20 inches) possible. Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely between Cape Flattery and Ingham. Six-hourly totals of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) are likely, with isolated falls of 25 cm (10 inches) possible along the coast and adjacent ranges.

Destructive winds of up to 140 kph (87 mph) may develop between Wujal Wujal and Innisfail, including Cairns early Dec. 13, while gales with damaging wind gusts of up to 120 kph (75 mph) are forecast along the Queensland coast and adjacent ranges between Cape Flattery and Lucinda, including Cairns, late Dec. 12-early Dec. 13 and are likely to extend inland to Palmerville and Chillagoe after the cyclone has crossed the coast Dec. 13.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a storm surge is likely between Cooktown and Lucinda on the high tides Dec. 13. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. A flood watch is in effect for the North Tropical Coast as well as parts of the Cape York Peninsula and Gulf County; minor to major flooding is possible from Dec. 13.

The Cairns Local Disaster Management Group (LDMG) has issued voluntary evacuation orders due to the risk of storm surge for around 15,000 residents late Dec. 12. People in at-risk Red Zone areas of the city have been advised to consider leaving now or move to a safer place on higher ground or a higher floor. Flooding is also possible in areas within the Orange Zone. Details on areas within each zone can be found here. Shelters have been established for those in the red and orange zones without a safe place to go at Edmonton Storm Tide Cyclone Shelter, PCYC, Walker Road and Redlynch State College, Jungara Road.

Cairns Airport (CNS) announced that it was ceasing operations from 20:00 Dec. 12. Cairns Airport domestic and international terminals will close Dec. 13; various airlines already canceled several flights Dec. 12. The airport will resume operations when it is safe to do so. Authorities have evacuated Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) staff from the Willis Island weather station. Bus services have been suspended in Cairns and many schools and other educational establishments have been closed across the affected areas Dec. 13.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.