Australia: Tropical Cyclone Jasper tracking westward to the east of northern Queensland as of the afternoon of Dec. 13 /update 7

Tropical Cyclone Jasper has strengthened into a Category 2 tropical cyclone and is tracking westward in the Coral Sea to the east of far northern Queensland, Australia, the afternoon of Dec. 13. As of 13:00 AEST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 148 km (92 miles) north-northeast of Cairns.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken into a Category 1 tropical cyclone as it tracks westward and makes landfall over the coast of Far North Queensland between Cape Tribulation and Cooktown late Dec. 13. After landfall, Jasper is forecast to weaken rapidly as it tracks westward across the Far North region through early Dec. 15 and dissipate over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria early Dec. 16. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of the afternoon of Dec. 13, the Australia Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has issued a cyclone warning between Cape Melville and Cardwell, including Cairns and Innisfail, and extending inland to include the Atherton Tablelands, Chillagoe, and Palmerville. Locally intense rainfall, which may lead to dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding, is likely along the coast and adjacent ranges between Cape Flattery and Port Douglas, as well as areas near the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper the afternoon or evening of Dec. 13. Six-hourly rainfall totals of 25-30 cm (10-12 inches) are likely, with 24-hourly totals of 40-50 cm (16-20 inches) possible. Heavy rainfall, which may lead to flash flooding, is likely between Cape Flattery and Ingham. Six-hourly totals of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) are likely, with isolated falls of 25 cm (10 inches) possible along the coast and adjacent ranges. A severe weather warning for heavy to locally intense rainfall and damaging winds is in place for parts of Peninsula, Gulf Country, and Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders forecast districts.

Destructive winds of up to 140 kph (87 mph) may develop between Wujal Wujal and Yarrabah, including Cairns the afternoon of Dec. 13, while gales with damaging wind gusts of up to 120 kph (75 mph) are occurring along the coast south of Wujal Wujal, including Cairns. Damaging wind gusts are forecast to extend further along the coast and adjacent ranges between Cooktown and Innisfail Dec. 13 and are possible further south to Cardwell and north to Cape Melville and then extend inland to the Atherton Tablelands and as far as Palmerville and Chillagoe late Dec. 13, after the cyclone has crossed the coast.

As the cyclone approaches the coast, a storm surge is likely between Cooktown and Lucinda on the high tides Dec. 13. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. A flood watch is in effect for the North Tropical Coast, as well as parts of the Cape York Peninsula and Gulf County; minor to major flooding is possible from Dec. 13.

The Cairns Local Disaster Management Group (LDMG) has issued voluntary evacuation orders due to the risk of storm surge for around 15,000 residents late Dec. 12. People in at-risk Red Zone areas of the city have been advised to consider leaving now or moving to a safer place on higher ground or a higher floor. Flooding is also possible in areas within the Orange Zone. Details on areas within each zone can be found here. Shelters have been established for those in the red and orange zones without a safe place to go at Edmonton Storm Tide Cyclone Shelter, PCYC, Walker Road, and Redlynch State College, Jungara Road. Reports indicate that almost 10,000 properties in the Cairns Regional Council area, more than 2,200 on the Cassowary Coast, more than 1,300 in Douglas Shire, and more than 1,200 in the Tablelands have lost power.

Cairns Airport (CNS) announced that it was ceasing operations from 20:00 Dec. 12. Cairns Airport domestic and international terminals will close Dec. 13; various airlines have canceled several flights Dec. 12. The airport will resume operations when it is safe to do so. Authorities have evacuated BOM staff from the Willis Island weather station. Bus services have been suspended in Cairns, and many schools and other educational establishments have been closed across the affected areas Dec. 13.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.