27 Dec 2023 | 10:20 AM UTC
Chad: Increased security likely and possible protests ahead of referendum results announcement, Dec. 28 /update 1
Increased security, disruptions, and protests likely across Chad on Dec. 28 ahead of constitutional referendum results.
Demonstrations, heightened security, and associated transport disruptions are likely in Chad on Dec. 28, as the Supreme Court is set to announce the official results of a referendum. Provisional results announced on Dec. 24 claim the new constitution was approved by 86 percent, with a turnout of 63.75 percent. If confirmed, the new Constitution will enter into force from Jan. 1, 2024. Some opposition parties and civil society groups have rejected the results over alleged electoral fraud.
Authorities will almost certainly deploy a heavy police presence near government buildings, including the Supreme Court, and any protests or rallies that materialize. Possible protest sites may include public squares such as N'Djamena's Place de la Nation, city centers, opposition party offices, and government buildings. Clashes between activists and security forces cannot be ruled out, particularly if demonstrators are overly disruptive or ignore police orders to disperse. Security forces may close roads around planned protest sites to prevent demonstrators from gathering. Localized transport and business disruptions are likely.
If operating in Chad, exercise increased personal vigilance on Dec. 28 and the following days. Avoid all demonstrations due to the possibility of political violence. Keep away from areas where security personnel appear to be deploying. If clashes break out nearby, take shelter in a safe, nongovernmental building. Heed the instructions of local security personnel and allow additional travel time near gatherings.
The referendum was held on Dec. 17 and reportedly proceeded mostly peacefully, though participation levels were presumed lower than announced. The proposed Constitution would pave the way for a presidential election in late 2024, and reduce the minimum age for the president from 45 to 35 years old to enable the transitional leader Mahamat Idriss Deby to run for office. Political parties and civil society groups had called their supporters to boycott the referendum.
Chad's political and security environment remains unstable following the April 2021, death of longtime President Idriss Deby Itno. The appointment of the late president's son, Mahamat Deby Itno, as the head of the now-suspended Transitional Military Council (TMC), along with an initial 18-month transition period, the suspension of the Constitution, and the National Assembly, sparked nationwide protests against the transitional government in 2022.
On October 20, 2022, opposition activists staged nationwide demonstrations that ended with at least 50 people dead and nearly 300 injured. Several hundred individuals were subsequently arrested in the aftermath of the protests. Moreover, according to opposition party officials associated with Les Transformateurs, on Oct. 8, 2023, nearly 200 party activists were arrested by security services as a preemptive move prior to Masra's return from self-imposed exile. The government has largely suppressed opposition groups from peacefully demonstrating, and security forces have been accused of human rights abuses associated with the use of excessive force against protesters.
