Cuba: Adverse weather forecast across most of the country through at least Dec. 17

Heavy rainfall is forecast across Cuba through at least Dec. 17. The Meteorological Institute of the Republic of Cuba (INSMET) has forecast isolated showers and thunderstorms with strong winds over Pinar del Rio province and Isla de la Juventud from early Dec. 16. Severe weather will move gradually over the rest of the western provinces and toward the central and parts of the eastern regions through Dec. 17. Further showers of varying intensity are forecast across the country Dec. 17, with strong winds potentially persisting over western Cuba due to a cold front over the Gulf of Mexico and a low pressure over southeastern US. INSMET has issued a weather advisory warning of coastal flooding in low-lying areas of the western provinces' southern coasts Dec. 16 and western north coasts, including the Havana Malecon, through Dec. 17. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.