12 Dec 2023 | 01:29 PM UTC
Mozambique: Further opposition protests likely nationwide in coming weeks following contested elections /update 7
Further opposition protests likely in Mozambique through 2023 at least following contested elections and violence.
Further opposition protests are likely at least through 2023 following disputed municipal elections. The ruling Liberation Front of Mozambique (Frelimo) won all four remaining elections held Dec. 10 amid low turnout and renewed opposition allegations of fraud. International observers also noted irregularities in the process and have called for reforms. Opposition parties, the Mozambican National Resistance Movement (Renamo) and the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM) rejected the results. Renamo attempted to stage a shutdown in Maputo on Dec. 11.
Further protests or shutdowns are likely nationwide over the coming weeks, especially in large urban centers. Possible protest locations in Maputo include along Avenida 24 de Julho and near the Statue of Samora Machel. Elsewhere, gatherings are likely in areas where the opposition enjoys a higher level of support, such as Beira and Quelimane, where protests may materialize near government buildings, political party offices, and along major routes.
Authorities will likely maintain an increased security posture in Maputo and nationwide. Measures may include the deployment of checkpoints, increased patrols near urban centers, border restrictions, and curfews. Clashes between supporters of Frelimo, Renamo, and the Democratic Movement of Mozambique (MDM) supporters, as well as with security forces, are likely at any protests that materialize. Disruptions to urban and intercity road travel, business operations, and telecommunications are likely during any significant civil unrest or preemptive security operations that may occur.
Exercise increased caution while operating in Mozambique in the coming weeks. Avoid all gatherings, political events, and election-related activities, as well as concentrations of security forces. Exercise caution near police offices, and government buildings. If clashes break out, leave the area immediately and take shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Monitor local news for updates on possible curfews or information on road conditions, as protestors may not announce actions in advance. Heed the advice of local authorities. If encountering police checkpoints, do not attempt to bypass security without authorities' permission.
Approximately 22 parties and civil society organizations ran for local mayoral and legislative positions, Oct. 11. Election day proceeded relatively peacefully, with minor delays reported in some localities. While the National Elections Commission (CNE) announced that Frelimo won 64 of 65 municipalities on Oct. 26, the Constitutional Council overturned the announcement on Nov. 24. It ruled that Frelimo won 56 municipalities, including Maputo, Renamo won four municipalities, and MDM won one; it also called for new elections in Marromeu, Gurue, Milange and Nacala where severe irregularities were noted.
Both Renamo and the MDM rejected the results and demonstrations followed each of these announcements, including in Beira and Quelimane, and with reports of violence in Maputo, Nampula, and Nacala, among other locations. Security forces have consistently employed tear gas and reportedly fired warning shots over the heads of demonstrators to disperse crowds. According to authorities, about 70 protesters have been arrested, with several individuals being injured. There have been conflicting reports of fatalities, with some civil society groups claiming two persons were killed in the violence, but official sources asserting that there were no deaths.
Frelimo has won every national election since the end of Mozambique's civil war. Neither Renamo nor the MDM has been able to mount a serious challenge to the ruling party outside of certain pockets of opposition support. Election periods have consistently proven disruptive. Clashes between supporters of rival political camps, as well as between activists and police, are relatively common.
