Australia: Tropical Cyclone Kirrily tracking west-southwestward toward the north-central Queensland coast Jan. 25 /update 3

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily is tracking west-southwestward in the Coral Sea toward the north-central Queensland coast Jan. 25. As of 16:00 AEST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 307 km (191 miles) southeast of Cairns.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will maintain Category 2 tropical cyclone strength as it approaches the north-central Queensland coast and makes landfall near Townsville late Jan. 25. The system is expected to weaken rapidly as it tracks southwestward into north-central Queensland through early Jan. 27. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming hours and days.

As of Jan. 25, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a cyclone warning from Innisfail to Sarina, including Townsville, Mackay, Bowen, the Whitsunday Islands, and extending inland to Charters Towers. Gales gusting up to 120 kph (75 mph) are occurring over the Whitsunday Islands and are starting to occur over some mainland communities and will extend northward through the warning area over the coming hours. Destructive winds gusting up to 155 kph (96 mph) may develop about coastal and island communities between Ayr and Bowen late Jan. 25 before extending north to Ingham, including Townsville. Very destructive winds gusting up to 170 kph (106 mph) are possible near the center of Kirrily as it crosses the coast.

Heavy rainfall is likely in coastal and adjacent inland areas between Tully and Bowen late Jan. 25 before spreading inland overnight Jan. 25-26. The greatest risk of flash flooding is expected in areas close to where the system makes landfall. A flood watch has been issued across affected areas. Storm surge and minor coastal flooding are possible in areas from Townsville to Mackay.

Authorities in Townsville have advised residents to shelter in place until the storm has passed. Public cyclone shelters have been established at Wills Street Evacuation Centre and Heatley Secondary College. Authorities have recommended voluntary evacuations for at-risk homes in Cungulla, Saunders Beach, and Gumlow. Townsville Airport (TSV) has closed from 12:00 Jan. 25 until further notice due to the passing of the storm. Bus services are suspended in Townsville and Magnetic Island Jan. 25 and several ferry services to coastal islands have been suspended Jan. 25-26. The Port of Townsville ceased commercial shipping operations early Jan. 24; all commercial vessels have departed and the floating plant is secured. Most schools across the greater Townsville area, including Ingham, Bowen, Burdekin, Palm Island, and southwards to Collinsville and Proserpine, are closed Jan. 25-26. Authorities in Ingham have also opened a cyclone shelter at Ingham State High School. Power outages have already been reported in Ayr and some Townsville suburbs as the storm approaches.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.