Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Kirrily tracking west-southwestward toward the north-central Queensland coast early Jan. 25 /update 2

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily is tracking west-southwestward in the Coral Sea toward the north-central Queensland coast early Jan. 25. As of 07:00 AEST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 457 km (284 miles) east-southeast of Cairns.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen from a Category 1 into a Category 2 tropical cyclone as it tracks generally southwestward across the Coral Sea and approaches the north-central Queensland coast Jan. 25. The system is expected to make landfall near Townsville late Jan. 25, before weakening rapidly as it tracks southwestward into north-central Queensland through Jan. 26. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Jan. 25, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a cyclone warning from Innisfail to Sarina, including Townsville, Mackay, Bowen, the Whitsunday Islands, and extending inland to Charters Towers. Gales gusting up to 120 kph (75 mph) are occurring over the Whitsunday Islands and are likely to extend to mainland communities between Ayr and Sarina early Jan. 25, northward to coastal and island communities between Ayr and Ingham, including Townsville, the afternoon and evening of Jan. 25, and may extend north between Ingham to Innisfail if the system takes a track further north. Destructive winds gusting up to 140 kph (87 mph) are forecast to develop about coastal and island communities between Ayr and Bowen the evening of Jan. 25 before extending north to Ingham, including Townsville late Jan. 25. Gales gusting up to 90 kph (56 mph) are forecast to extend to inland areas including Charters Towers late Jan. 25-early Jan. 26.

Heavy rainfall is likely in coastal areas between Innisfail and Sarina from early Jan. 25 before spreading inland late Jan. 25-26. The greatest risk of flash flooding is expected in areas close to where the system makes landfall. A flood watch has been issued across affected areas. Storm surge and minor coastal flooding are possible in areas from Townsville to Mackay.

Authorities in Townsville have announced that Townsville Airport (TSV) will close from 12:00 Jan. 25 due to the passing of the storm. Public cyclone shelters have been established at Wills Street Evacuation Centre and Heatley Secondary College. Authorities have recommended voluntary evacuations for at-risk homes in Cungulla, Saunders Beach, and Gumlow. Bus services are suspended in Townsville and Magnetic Island Jan. 25 and several ferry services to coastal islands have been suspended Jan. 25-26. The Port of Townsville ceased commercial shipping operations early Jan. 24; all commercial vessels have departed and the floating plant is secured. Most schools across the greater Townsville area, including Ingham, Bowen, Burdekin, Palm Island, and southwards to Collinsville and Proserpine are closed Jan. 25-26.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.