Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Kirrily tracking westward toward the north-central Queensland coast Jan. 24 /update 1

Tropical Cyclone Kirrily is tracking westward in the Coral Sea toward the north-central Queensland coast Jan. 24. As of 16:00 AEST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 682 km (424miles) east of Cairns.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen from a Category 1 into a Category 2 tropical cyclone as it tracks generally southwestward across the Coral Sea and approaches the north-central Queensland coast Jan. 24-25. The system is expected to make landfall between Townsville and Ayr late Jan. 25, before weakening rapidly as it tracks southwestward into north-central Queensland through Jan. 26. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Jan. 24, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a cyclone warning from Cardwell to Sarina, including Townsville, Mackay, Bowen, the Whitsunday Islands, and extending inland to Charters Towers. A cyclone watch is in place from Cardwell northward to Innisfail. Winds gusting up to 120 kph (77 mph) are forecast to develop near the Whitsunday islands late Jan. 24 before reaching coastal areas between Ayr and Salina early Jan. 25 and extending northward to Cardwell through Jan. 25. Stronger winds gusting up to 140 kph (87 mph) are possible in coastal and island communities between Cardwell and Proserpine including Townsville and the Whitsunday Islands Jan. 25. Heavy rainfall is likely in coastal areas between Innisfail and Sarina from early Jan. 25 before spreading inland late Jan. 25-26. The greatest risk of flash flooding is expected in areas close to where the system makes landfall. A flood watch has been issued across affected areas. Storm surge and minor coastal flooding are possible in areas from Townsville to Mackay.

Authorities in Townsville have announced that Townsville Airport (TSV) will close from 12:00 Jan. 25 due to the passing of the storm. Public cyclone shelters have been established at Wills Street Evacuation Centre and Heatley Secondary College. Authorities have recommended voluntary evacuations for at-risk homes in Cungulla, Saunders Beach, and Gumlow. Bus services will be suspended in Townsville Jan. 25 and several ferry services to coastal islands have been suspended Jan. 25-26.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.