Coral Sea: Tropical Cyclone Seven forms in the Coral Sea and tracking south-southwestward towards Queensland Jan. 23

Tropical Cyclone Seven has formed in the Coral Sea and is tracking south-southwestward Jan. 23. As of 16:00 AEST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 830 km (516 miles) east of Cairns.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen from a tropical low into a Category 1 and then Category 2 tropical cyclone, upon which it will be named Cyclone Kirrily, as it tracks generally southwestward across the Coral Sea toward the central Queensland coast Jan. 23-25. The system is expected to make landfall near Bowen late Jan. 25, before weakening rapidly as it tracks southwestward into central Queensland through Jan. 26. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Jan. 23, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has issued a cyclone warning from Ayr to Mackay, including Mackay, Bowen, and the Whitsunday Islands. Cyclone watches are in place from Ayr northward to but not including Cairns and from Mackay southward to St. Lawrence. Winds gusting up to 120 kph (77 mph) are forecast to develop near the Whitsunday islands late afternoon Jan. 24 before reaching coastal areas between Townsville and St Lawrence overnight Jan. 24-25 and possibly reaching as far north as Cairns Jan. 25. Stronger winds gusting up to 155 kph (96 mph) are possible in coastal and island communities between Cardwell and Proserpine including Townsville and the Whitsunday Islands Jan. 25. Heavy rainfall is likely in coastal areas between Innisfail and St Lawrence Jan. 25, with the greatest risk of flash flooding expected in areas close to where the system makes landfall. A flood watch has been issued across affected areas. Storm surge and minor coastal flooding are possible in areas from Townsville to Mackay.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.