19 Jan 2024 | 11:11 PM UTC
Ecuador: Increased security measures and criminal violence likely through at least March as state of emergency remains in effect /update 4
State of emergency remains in effect throughout Ecuador; increased security measures and retaliatory criminal violence likely through March.
Incidents of gang-related violence, as well as increased security measures meant to bring crime under control, are likely across Ecuador through early March. In response to the increase in violence, President Daniel Noboa decreed a nationwide state of emergency through at least March 8. Under the decree, all persons must remain indoors between the hours of 23:00-05:00 daily. Exceptions exist for certain essential and emergency personnel, as well as those traveling to and from airports who have flights during curfew hours.
The decree also mobilizes the armed forces, authorizing them to carry out law-enforcement operations throughout the country and to intervene in the nation's prison system. It further declares the areas within a 1-km (0.6-mile) radius of all prisons to be secure zones where police and military forces may perform identification checks and searches of pedestrians and vehicles. The measures also suspend certain constitutional rights nationwide, including the right to assembly and freedom from warrantless searches.
Noboa has additionally declared Ecuador to be in a state of internal armed conflict and listed 22 criminal groups as belligerent forces that can be targeted using military force. This declaration has dramatically broadened the authority of the armed forces to conduct operations against the groups in question; military operations are likely in all major cities, especially Guayaquil, where many of the groups are based.
In retaliation, criminal groups will likely continue attacks against the government, potentially including shooting at police convoys, detonating improvised explosive devices near government installations, and burning private vehicles. Attacks may also target high-level government officials; on Jan. 17, the prosecutor charged with trying organized crime figures in Guayaquil was assassinated. Criminal groups previously carried out several attacks on political figures, including the 2023 assassination of a presidential candidate. Any additional attacks on officials would likely result in major police and military response.
Transport and business disruptions are likely. Military forces have deployed to seaports and airports throughout the country and, in Quito, police and military personnel are searching the bags of passengers entering the metro system. Additional searches and checkpoints are likely nationwide. Attacks sometimes prompt widespread business closures, as business owners fear being caught up in the violence.
In-person classes have been canceled at schools in Quito and Pedernalesas Canton, as well as the provinces of Guayas, Esmeraldas, and Los Rios; persons with school-aged children in these areas may find it difficult to report to work due to the absence of daytime childcare. It remains unclear when school schedules may return to normal.
Avoid the affected areas. Strictly adhere to all instructions issued by local authorities. Exercise heightened caution when operating in Ecuador.
The current wave of violence began on Jan. 8 when inmates in prisons across the country rioted and took guards hostage in response to the news that the leader of the Choneros, one of Ecuador's most powerful organized crime groups, had escaped from incarceration. During the riots, a leader of the Lobos, a major criminal organization that is a rival to the Choneros, also escaped. While these groups are engaged in a broad spectrum of criminal activity, they especially focus on trafficking cocaine through the port of Guayaquil; consequently, that city has seen much of the violence unleashed by the groups since Jan. 8.
