Indonesia: Political rallies, increased security measures certain nationwide through at least mid-February ahead of Feb. 14 general elections

Increased security measures, political rallies, and associated disruptions are certain to occur nationwide through at least mid-February ahead of the Feb. 14 general elections. The government will deploy nearly 500,000 security personnel across Indonesia to facilitate various activities. Officials have cautioned about an increased terrorism risk during the election period and have labeled several regions, including Aceh, Bali, Central Java, East Java, Maluku, North Sulawesi, North Sumatra, Papua, Southeast Sulawesi, West Kalimantan, as particularly vulnerable. In Oct. 2023, the government apprehended 59 suspected militants, primarily linked to the Islamic State (IS)-inspired Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD). Authorities have additionally asserted that current developments in the Middle East could also pose additional challenges.

Various political parties will conduct their campaigns through Feb. 7. As of Jan. 27, presidential candidates Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo, and Anies Baswedan will lead several gatherings on the following dates:

• Feb. 8

  • Baswedan will host a rally in West Java.

  • Pranowo will hold a public gathering in East Java.

  • Subianto has announced a demonstration in Central Java.

• Feb. 9

  • Baswedan will host a rally in Sidoarjo Regency, East Java.

  • Pranowo has announced a gathering in Jakarta.

  • Subianto will stage a rally in Surabaya, East Java.

• Feb. 10

  • Baswedan will organize a rally in Jakarta International Stadium.

  • Pranowo will hold a gathering in Central Java.

  • Subianto to stage a rally in Jakarta's Gelora Bung Karno Main Stadium.

Although organizers did not immediately specify further details concerning the event start time and venues, potential gathering sites include political party offices, sports stadiums, government buildings, public squares, and thoroughfares. Additional gatherings by other political groups or like-minded organizations are highly likely over the coming weeks. Well-attended gatherings will probably draw tens of thousands of participants.

Officials will almost certainly monitor any such gatherings and may use force, including tear gas, to disperse overly unruly crowds. Authorities may implement enhanced security restrictions, including road closures, depending on operational needs. While most public events will likely pass off peacefully, clashes between police and activists, as well as between opposing rival groups, cannot be ruled out. Isolated security incidents, including small-scale explosions, are possible; such occurrences are more likely to transpire in restive regions such as Aceh, East Java, Maluku, Papua, and Southeast Sulawesi. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are highly likely.