Pakistan: Adverse weather forecast to continue across much of the country through at least Feb. 4 /update 2

Adverse weather is forecast to continue across much of Pakistan through at least Feb. 4. As of Jan. 30, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has issued a press release stating that further heavy rainfall and snowfall in elevated areas are expected across much of the country Jan. 31-Feb. 4, with the greatest risk of flooding expected in parts of Balochistan Province Feb. 2-3. The PMD has forecast moderate-to-heavy rainfall with snowfall in elevated areas of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan administrative territories and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province Jan. 31 and parts of northern Punjab Province Jan.31-Feb. 1 and Feb. 3-4. Rain with isolated heavy downpours and snow over the hills is expected across parts of Balochistan Province Feb. 2-3. Light-to-moderate rainfall is expected in Islamabad Capital Territory and parts of central, eastern, and northeastern Punjab Province Jan. 31-Feb. 1 and Feb. 3-4. Light-to-moderate rainfall is also forecast in southern and western parts of Punjab and parts of central, northern, and western Sindh provinces Feb. 2-3.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Precipitation could fall as snow in the higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant winds, flooding, or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at regional airports. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.