Pakistan: Increased security, rallies, related disruptions likely to intensify nationwide through at least early February ahead of general elections /update 1

Increased security, rallies, and associated disruptions to transport and business operations will almost certainly intensify across Pakistan through the country's Feb. 8 general elections. Various political groups have already staged several demonstrations, including in parts of Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh provinces. On Jan. 28, clashes occurred between Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) supporters and police officers during a rally near Karachi's Teen Talwar Monument; authorities detained 25 of the participating activists. On the same day, armed assailants targeted the election offices of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) in Qalat and the National Party (NP) in Mastung, Balochistan; the incidents reportedly left two people injured.

Among the election-related events, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is continuing its campaign to hold over 60 rallies in up to 15 divisions. Former prime ministers and PML-N leaders Nawaz and Shehbaz Sharif will lead several public gatherings. The PPP, on the other hand, will stage 30 rallies through Feb. 6. Their campaign of demonstrations began in Swabi, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, on Jan. 10 and will conclude with a public gathering in Larkana, Sindh Province on Feb. 6.

Additional rallies by the PML-N, PPP, and other groups are highly likely over the coming days. Counterdemonstrations by various political and/or religious groups may materialize at short notice during any planned events. Potential gathering sites include prominent government buildings, including police stations and election commission offices, public squares, political party offices, sports fields, press clubs, and major thoroughfares. While participation may vary by locale and sponsoring political group, gatherings in major cities could draw hundreds of thousands of participants.

The government will maintain an enhanced security posture across the country through at least Feb. 8. Officials will deploy nearly 300,000 security personnel to facilitate the vote on election day. In Islamabad, around 10,000 personnel will be deployed. Authorities will almost certainly tighten security near polling stations, crowded marketplaces, government buildings, public squares, and major thoroughfares. In Punjab Province, authorities have invoked Section 144 of the Penal Code until further notice. Under Section 144, public gatherings of more than five people are prohibited along major thoroughfares and in governmental zones across the province. Officials may conduct mass arrests or use force, including tear gas, in response to security incidents. Further clashes between police and activists and between members of rival political or religious camps cannot be ruled out. Isolated security incidents, including small-scale explosions, are possible. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are highly likely.